Avalonbay Communities Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AVB Stock | USD 191.34 2.68 1.42% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding AvalonBay Communities is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides AvalonBay Communities buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AVB positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of AvalonBay Communities' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting AvalonBay Communities' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 183.67 | Target Price 197.05 | Hype Value 190.86 | Market Value 191.34 | Naive Value 192.76 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell AvalonBay Communities given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards AvalonBay Communities. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for AvalonBay Communities, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
AvalonBay |
Execute AvalonBay Communities Buy or Sell Advice
The AvalonBay recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on AvalonBay Communities. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in AvalonBay Communities or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute AvalonBay Communities' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
AvalonBay Communities Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of April 2024 AvalonBay Communities paid $ 1.7 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Equity Residential Q1 FFO Tops on Solid Demand, Cost Focus |
AvalonBay Communities Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of AvalonBay Communities' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of AvalonBay Communities' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of AvalonBay Communities daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use AvalonBay Communities price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of AvalonBay Communities returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for AvalonBay Communities.
| Mean Return | 0.10 | Value At Risk | -1.98 | Potential Upside | 2.64 | Standard Deviation | 1.26 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of AvalonBay Communities historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
AvalonBay Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as AvalonBay Communities is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AvalonBay Communities backward and forwards among themselves. AvalonBay Communities' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase AvalonBay Communities' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 2.1 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.9 M | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Clearbridge Advisors, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | 2023-12-31 | 1.7 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 1.7 M | Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 22.6 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 16.3 M |
AvalonBay Communities Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (90.3M) | 185.9M | 230.3M | 190.5M | (203.3M) | (193.1M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.4B | |
| Depreciation | 661.6M | 707.3M | 758.6M | 815.0M | 817.0M | 857.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 11.9M | 18.6M | 12.6M | (573.4M) | 1.4B | 1.5B | |
| Dividends Paid | 840.1M | 883.6M | 888.7M | 890.0M | 922.7M | 968.8M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 140.9M | 137.0M | 153.2M | 174.7M | 197.3M | 355.2M | |
| Net Income | 786.1M | 827.7M | 1.0B | 1.1B | 927.2M | 491.7M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 127.6M | 313.5M | 543.8M | 734.2M | 531.0M | 306.5M | |
| Net Borrowings | 241.6M | 250.9M | 518.1M | 190.9M | 219.6M | 135.3M | |
| Change To Netincome | (124.3M) | (299.3M) | (581.6M) | (554.6M) | (499.1M) | (474.2M) | |
| Investments | 12.5M | 14.3M | 64.4M | 26.1M | (794.8M) | (755.1M) |
AvalonBay Communities Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to AvalonBay Communities or Diversified REITs sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that AvalonBay Communities' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a AvalonBay stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
AvalonBay Communities Volatility Alert
AvalonBay Communities has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.29 and kurtosis of 0.72. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure AvalonBay Communities' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact AvalonBay Communities' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.AvalonBay Communities Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing AvalonBay Communities' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze AvalonBay Communities' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between AvalonBay Communities and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as AvalonBay Communities or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of AvalonBay Communities' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AvalonBay Communities by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare AvalonBay Communities to competition |
| Fundamentals | AvalonBay Communities | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0806 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0273 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.33 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.32 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 34.88 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 142.18 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.35 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 94.96 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.47 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.32 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.22 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 9.39 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 2.82 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.69 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.7 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 927.16 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 613.19 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.65 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 8.14 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.73 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.13 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 83.07 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.57 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.96 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 6.56 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 5.03 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 197.31 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.98 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.93 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 27.21 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 20.68 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 478.16 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (163.59 M) | 1.48 B |
AvalonBay Communities Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as AvalonBay . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About AvalonBay Communities Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell AvalonBay Communities? Buying financial instruments such as AvalonBay Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 8.1B | 8.3B | 8.1B | 4.4B | Total Assets | 19.9B | 20.5B | 20.7B | 10.9B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having AvalonBay Communities in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Tech Growth Thematic Idea Now
Tech Growth
Instruments that are typically traded at high earnings multiples compared to their competitors and other sectors and have been known to drive market cycles frequently. The Tech Growth theme has 66 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Tech Growth Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out AvalonBay Communities Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for AvalonBay Stock analysis
When running AvalonBay Communities' price analysis, check to measure AvalonBay Communities' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AvalonBay Communities is operating at the current time. Most of AvalonBay Communities' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AvalonBay Communities' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AvalonBay Communities' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AvalonBay Communities to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AvalonBay Communities' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AvalonBay Communities. If investors know AvalonBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AvalonBay Communities listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Earnings Share 6.56 | Revenue Per Share 19.683 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets 0.0273 |
The market value of AvalonBay Communities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AvalonBay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AvalonBay Communities' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AvalonBay Communities' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AvalonBay Communities' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AvalonBay Communities' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AvalonBay Communities' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AvalonBay Communities is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AvalonBay Communities' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.