Ducommun Incorporated Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

DCO Stock  USD 51.30  0.85  1.68%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ducommun Incorporated is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Ducommun Incorporated buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding DCO positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Ducommun Incorporated's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Ducommun Incorporated's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
50.65
Target Price
61.8
Hype Value
51.3
Market Value
51.3
Naive Value
49.8
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Ducommun Incorporated given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Ducommun Incorporated. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Ducommun Incorporated, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Ducommun Incorporated Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Ducommun Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ducommun Incorporated guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ducommun and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Ducommun Incorporated. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.

Execute Ducommun Incorporated Buy or Sell Advice

The Ducommun recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ducommun Incorporated. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ducommun Incorporated or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ducommun Incorporated's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Ducommun IncorporatedBuy Ducommun Incorporated
Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Ducommun Incorporated has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0059, Jensen Alpha of (0.18), Total Risk Alpha of (0.36) and Treynor Ratio of (0.01)
Our investment recommendation tool can be used to complement Ducommun Incorporated trade advice provided by experts. It analyzes the company's potential to grow against your specific risk preferences and investment horizon. To make sure Ducommun Incorporated is not overpriced, please confirm all Ducommun Incorporated fundamentals, including its gross profit, book value per share, and the relationship between the price to earning and cash per share . Given that Ducommun Incorporated has a price to earning of 20.87 X, we urge you to verify Ducommun Incorporated market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Ducommun Incorporated Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Ducommun Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Ducommun Incorporated Named to Newsweeks List of Most Responsible Companies for 2024

Ducommun Incorporated Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Ducommun Incorporated's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ducommun Incorporated's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ducommun Incorporated daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ducommun Incorporated price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ducommun Incorporated returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ducommun Incorporated.
Mean Return
-0.0013
Value At Risk
-2.7
Potential Upside
2.48
Standard Deviation
1.55
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ducommun Incorporated historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Ducommun Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Ducommun Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ducommun Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Ducommun Incorporated's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Ducommun Incorporated's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
289 K
Gw&k Investment Management, Llc2023-12-31
263.1 K
Kennedy Capital Management Inc2023-12-31
257.8 K
Wasatch Advisors Inc.2023-12-31
232.8 K
Royce & Associates, Lp2023-12-31
231 K
Wellington Management Company Llp2023-12-31
207.7 K
Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisers, Llc2023-12-31
204 K
Meros Investment Management, Lp2023-12-31
191.9 K
Hood River Capital Management Llc2023-12-31
189.1 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
1.6 M
Paradigm Capital Management, Inc.2023-12-31
1.4 M
Note, although Ducommun Incorporated's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Ducommun Incorporated Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(8.5M)(20.2M)(17.1M)(20.8M)(18.8M)(17.9M)
Change In Cash29.3M16.9M19.9M(30.1M)(3.4M)(3.2M)
Free Cash Flow32.7M101K(17.4M)13.0M11.5M13.5M
Depreciation28.3M28.9M28.4M31.4M32.6M34.2M
Other Non Cash Items4.0M12.8M(130.1M)9.7M7.0M7.4M
Capital Expenditures18.3M12.5M16.9M19.7M19.5M12.5M
Net Income32.5M29.2M135.5M28.8M15.9M14.2M
End Period Cash Flow39.6M56.5M76.3M46.2M42.9M45.0M
Change Receivables2.4M8.9M(11.7M)(31.2M)(28.1M)(26.7M)
Net Borrowings75.7M10.4M(33.3M)(42.1M)(48.4M)(46.0M)
Change To Netincome6.5M19.2M12.0M3.5M3.2M3.0M
Investments(94.9M)(5.5M)57.8M(19.2M)(135.3M)(128.5M)

Ducommun Incorporated Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ducommun Incorporated or Aerospace & Defense sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ducommun Incorporated's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ducommun stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.39
σ
Overall volatility
1.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Ducommun Incorporated Volatility Alert

Ducommun Incorporated exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.51 and kurtosis of 0.57. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ducommun Incorporated's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ducommun Incorporated's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Ducommun Incorporated Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Ducommun Incorporated's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ducommun Incorporated's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ducommun Incorporated and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ducommun Incorporated or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ducommun Incorporated's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ducommun Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Ducommun Incorporated to competition
FundamentalsDucommun IncorporatedPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0274-0.31
Return On Asset0.0263-0.14
Profit Margin0.02 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.06 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation991.38 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding14.64 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders14.27 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions88.95 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted159.16 K4.71 M
Price To Earning20.87 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.16 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.98 X11.42 X
Revenue756.99 M9.43 B
Gross Profit144.8 M27.38 B
EBITDA77.33 M3.9 B
Net Income15.93 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents46.25 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share3.11 X5.01 X
Total Debt295.59 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.59 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.79 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share43.57 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations31.07 M971.22 M
Short Ratio1.74 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.14 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth3.04 X4.89 X
Target Price64.0
Number Of Employees2.27 K18.84 K
Beta1.27-0.15
Market Capitalization738.65 M19.03 B
Total Asset1.12 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings421.98 M9.33 B
Working Capital365.87 M1.48 B
Note: Disposition of 820 shares by Suman Mookerji of Ducommun Incorporated at 44.22 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Ducommun Incorporated Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ducommun . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Ducommun Incorporated Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Ducommun Incorporated? Buying financial instruments such as Ducommun Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total320.6M282.8M295.6M310.4M
Total Assets978.7M1.0B1.1B1.2B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Ducommun Incorporated in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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When determining whether Ducommun Incorporated offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ducommun Incorporated's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ducommun Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ducommun Incorporated Stock:
Check out Ducommun Incorporated Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Ducommun Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ducommun Incorporated guide.
Note that the Ducommun Incorporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ducommun Incorporated's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Ducommun Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Ducommun Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ducommun Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Ducommun Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ducommun Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ducommun Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ducommun Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ducommun Incorporated's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ducommun Incorporated. If investors know Ducommun will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ducommun Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.47)
Earnings Share
1.14
Revenue Per Share
55.186
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
Return On Assets
0.0263
The market value of Ducommun Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ducommun that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ducommun Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ducommun Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ducommun Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ducommun Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ducommun Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ducommun Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ducommun Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.