Fossil Buy or Sell Recommendation

Macroaxis provides Fossil Group Inc buy hold or sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Fossil positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Fossil Group Inc available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. The advice is provided from Fossil buy-and-hold prospective. Additionally see Fossil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with current analyst consensus

Investment Horizon


Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Fossil Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 9.01  0.2  2.17%

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, and your above average risk tolerance our recommendation regarding Fossil Group Inc is 'Hold'.
For the selected time horizon Fossil Group Inc has a risk adjusted performance of 0.0346, jensen alpha of (0.18), total risk alpha of (1.51), sortino ratio of 0.0181 and treynor ratio of 0.1039
We provide buy or sell advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Fossil Group Inc. Our dynamic recommendation engine makes use of multi - dimensional algorithm to analyze the company potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Fossil is not overpriced, please confirm all Fossil Group Inc fundamentals including its Revenue, Cash Flow from Operations, Current Asset, as well as the relationship between Cash per Share and Beta . Given that Fossil Group Inc has Number of Shares Shorted of 14.33 M, we urge you verify Fossil Group Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to make sure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Returns Distribution Density

Mean Return0.24Value At Risk-4.2553
Potential Upside3.2902Standard Deviation2.5822
 Return Density 

Institutional Investors

Security TypeSharesValue
Winslow Asset Management IncCommon Shares407.7 K3.8 M
Shell Asset Management CoCommon Shares6.9 K652 K
Robeco Institutional Asset Management BvCommon Shares35.3 K328 K
Bank Of MontrealPut Options24.3 K227 K
Bank Of MontrealCommon Shares23.3 K217 K
Louisiana State Employees Retirement SystemCommon Shares17.5 K163 K
State Of Alaska Department Of RevenueCommon Shares8.3 K77 K
Cutler Group LpCall Options55.7 K32 K
Cutler Group LpCommon Shares2.5 K23 K

Fossil Greeks

Alpha over DOW
βBeta against DOW= 2.25 
Overall volatility
= 2.58 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.0197 

Fossil Volatility Alert

Fossil Group Inc currently demonstrates below average downside deviation of 2.8. It has Information Ratio of 0.02 and Jensen Alpha of -0.18. However, we do advice investors to further question Fossil Group Inc expected returns to make sure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.
 Better Than Average     
 Worse Than Average Compare Fossil to competition
FundamentalsFossilPeer Average
Return On Equity(39.71) % (15.17) %
Return On Asset3.04 % (15.64) %
Profit Margin(11.33) % (5.5) %
Operating Margin3.38 % (10.91) %
Current Valuation450.36 M152.14 B
Shares Outstanding48.52 M1.43 B
Shares Owned by Insiders10.81 % 6.91 %
Shares Owned by Institutions120.24 % 18.37 %
Number of Shares Shorted14.33 M3.24 M
Price to Earning(1.32) times40.69 times
Price to Book0.67 times14.44 times
Price to Sales0.15 times17.81 times
Revenue2.88 B9.85 B
Gross Profit1.58 B21.75 B
EBITDA179.11 M1.41 B
Net Income(325.84 M)517.71 M
Cash and Equivalents319.95 M3.89 B
Cash per Share6.59 times5.17 times
Total Debt646.36 M7.36 B
Debt to Equity98.7 % 0.72 %
Current Ratio3.15 times3.3 times
Book Value Per Share13.26 times13.64 times
Cash Flow from Operations173.57 M1.25 B
Short Ratio7.1 times2.09 times
Earnings Per Share(6.75) times2.3 times
Price to Earnings To Growth(4.34) times1.22 times
Number of Employees15.1 K10.67 K
Market Capitalization432.82 M29.78 B
Total Asset380.86 M126.86 B
Retained Earnings813.96 M38.24 B
Working Capital163.28 M3.58 B
Current Asset269.52 M36.8 B

Hype Condition

Current Valuation

Odds of Distress

Economic Sensitivity

Analyst Consensus

Piotroski F Score

Financial Leverage

   Fossil exotic insider transaction detected [view details]
Risk Adjusted Performance0.0346
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.1139
Mean Deviation2.02
Semi Deviation2.45
Downside Deviation2.8
Coefficient Of Variation1057.29
Standard Deviation2.58
Information Ratio0.0197
Jensen Alpha(0.18)
Total Risk Alpha(1.51)
Sortino Ratio0.0181
Treynor Ratio0.1039
Maximum Drawdown10.39
Value At Risk(4.26)
Potential Upside3.29
Downside Variance7.85
Semi Variance6.01
Expected Short fall(2.08)

Current Valuation

Fossil Current Valuation Analysis
Fossil Group Inc is rated below average in current valuation category among related companies. After adjusting for long-term liabilities, total market size of Diversified Wholesale And Retail industry is currently estimated at about 284.32 Billion. Fossil adds roughly 450.36 Million in current valuation claiming only tiny portion of equities under Diversified Wholesale And Retail industry.