Fossil Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

FOSL Stock  USD 0.85  0.02  2.30%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Fossil Group is 'Sell'. Macroaxis provides Fossil buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Fossil positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Fossil's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Osisko Gold Ro's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
2.4
Target Price
7
Hype Value
0.82
Market Value
0.85
Naive Value
0.78
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Fossil Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Fossil. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Fossil Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Fossil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Fossil and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Fossil Group. Also, note that the market value of any Company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.

Execute Fossil Buy or Sell Advice

The Fossil recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Fossil Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Fossil Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Fossil's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell FossilBuy Fossil
Sell

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

RiskyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong SellDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Fossil Group has a Mean Deviation of 2.88, Standard Deviation of 3.84 and Variance of 14.73
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Fossil Group. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Fossil is not overpriced, please confirm all Fossil Group fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, working capital, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . As Fossil Group appears to be a penny stock we also advise to verify its price to earning numbers.

Fossil Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Fossil Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Fossil Group has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fossil Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (157.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 830.68 M.
Fossil Group currently holds about 162.61 M in cash with (59.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.14, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Fossil Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Fossil Non-GAAP EPS of -0.30, revenue of 421.3M

Fossil Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Fossil's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Fossil's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Fossil stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Fossil Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Fossil returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Fossil.
Mean Return
-0.44
Value At Risk
-5.49
Potential Upside
7.04
Standard Deviation
3.84
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Fossil historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Fossil Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Fossil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fossil Group backward and forwards among themselves. Fossil's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Fossil's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Nantahala Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
810.6 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
796.1 K
Two Sigma Investments Llc2023-12-31
747.8 K
Two Sigma Advisers, Llc2023-12-31
687 K
Acadian Asset Management Llc2023-12-31
563.1 K
Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc.2023-09-30
517.5 K
Millennium Management Llc2023-12-31
450.6 K
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
423.7 K
Northern Trust Corp
376.7 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
3.7 M
Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc2023-12-31
2.7 M
Note, although Fossil's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Fossil Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(78.1M)168.6M(62.3M)(46.0M)125.8M132.1M
Change In Cash(203.1M)116.5M(59.7M)(60.5M)(81.6M)(77.5M)
Free Cash Flow(38.4M)90.5M39.7M(124.1M)(69.4M)(65.9M)
Depreciation54.8M43.1M29.6M23.3M19.1M18.1M
Other Non Cash Items148.9M126.2M109.1M97.7M72.1M39.6M
Capital Expenditures24.1M10.7M10.3M13.3M9.9M9.4M
Net Income(50.0M)(95.9M)26.6M(43.5M)(157.1M)(149.2M)
End Period Cash Flow207.7M324.2M264.6M204.1M117.3M195.2M
Dividends Paid4.0M4.2M3.9M5.7M6.5M7.3M
Change To Netincome12.7M55.5M47.8M32.4M37.3M47.6M
Investments18.7M(10.6M)7.1M(8.6M)(9.9M)(9.4M)
Change Receivables30.9M60.7M(35.5M)41.6M47.9M50.3M
Net Borrowings(185.2M)21.5M(99.7M)71.9M64.7M67.9M

Fossil Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Fossil or Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Fossil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Fossil stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.75
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.31
σ
Overall volatility
3.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

Fossil Volatility Alert

Fossil Group exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.84 and kurtosis of 1.63. However, we advise investors to further study Fossil Group technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Fossil Group is a potential penny stock. Although Fossil may be in fact a good instrument to invest, many penny stocks are speculative in nature and are subject to artificial price hype. Please make sure you totally understand the upside potential and downside risk of investing in Fossil Group. We encourage investors to look for signals such as email spams, message board hypes, claims of breakthroughs, volume upswings, sudden news releases, promotions that are not reported, or demotions released before SEC filings. Please also check biographies and work history of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with microcap classification. You can indeed make money on Fossil instrument if you perfectly time your entry and exit. However, remember that penny stocks that have been the subject of artificial hype usually unable to maintain their increased share price for more than just a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to increase shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed up by solid fundamentals.

Fossil Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Fossil's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Fossil's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Fossil and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Fossil or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Fossil's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Fossil to competition
FundamentalsFossilPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.48-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0519-0.14
Profit Margin(0.11) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.02) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation317.14 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding52.49 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders10.68 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions63.24 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.72 M4.71 M
Price To Earning21.04 X28.72 X
Price To Book0.18 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.03 X11.42 X
Revenue1.41 B9.43 B
Gross Profit830.68 M27.38 B
EBITDA(77.49 M)3.9 B
Net Income(157.09 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents162.61 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share3.14 X5.01 X
Total Debt388.67 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.27 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.37 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share4.84 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations(59.46 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio9.62 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(3.00) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth(4.34) X4.89 X
Target Price7.0
Number Of Employees6.1 K18.84 K
Beta2.05-0.15
Market Capitalization45.67 M19.03 B
Total Asset978.03 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings18.4 M9.33 B
Working Capital368.21 M1.48 B

Fossil Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Fossil . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Fossil Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Fossil Group? Buying financial instruments such as Fossil Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total316.5M366.6M388.7M202.5M
Total Assets1.4B1.2B978.0M1.1B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Fossil in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Wholesale Thematic Idea Now

Wholesale
Wholesale Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Wholesale theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Wholesale Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Fossil Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fossil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fossil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fossil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Fossil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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Is Fossil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.82)
Earnings Share
(3.00)
Revenue Per Share
27.014
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.