Heritage Insurance Hldgs Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

HRTG Stock  USD 10.65  0.15  1.43%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Heritage Insurance Hldgs is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Heritage Insurance buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HRTG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Heritage Insurance's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Heritage Insurance's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
10.75
Target Price
6.23
Hype Value
10.65
Market Value
10.65
Naive Value
11.5
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Heritage Insurance Hldgs given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Heritage Insurance. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Heritage Insurance Hldgs, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Heritage Insurance Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Heritage and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Heritage Insurance Hldgs. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.

Execute Heritage Insurance Buy or Sell Advice

The Heritage recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Heritage Insurance Hldgs. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Heritage Insurance Hldgs or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Heritage Insurance's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Heritage InsuranceBuy Heritage Insurance
Strong Buy

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Somewhat reliableDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Heritage Insurance Hldgs has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1155, Jensen Alpha of 0.5082, Total Risk Alpha of (0.15), Sortino Ratio of 0.2644 and Treynor Ratio of 0.3236
Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Heritage Insurance and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Heritage Insurance Hldgs is not overpriced, please check out all Heritage Insurance fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, five year return, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and beta . Given that Heritage Insurance Hldgs has a number of shares shorted of 458.06 K, we strongly advise you to confirm Heritage Insurance Hldgs market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Heritage Insurance Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Heritage Insurance appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company currently holds 148.19 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.85, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Heritage Insurance Hldgs has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Heritage Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Heritage Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Heritage Insurance Hldgs sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Heritage to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Heritage Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 27.0% of Heritage Insurance shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Key Piece of Titanic Movie Memorabilia Purchased By Titanic Museum Attraction

Heritage Insurance Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Heritage Insurance's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Heritage Insurance's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Heritage Insurance daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Heritage Insurance Hldgs price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Heritage Insurance returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Heritage Insurance.
Mean Return
0.84
Value At Risk
-4.48
Potential Upside
6.71
Standard Deviation
4.36
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Heritage Insurance historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Heritage Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Heritage Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Insurance Hldgs backward and forwards among themselves. Heritage Insurance's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Heritage Insurance's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Renaissance Technologies Corp2023-12-31
325.8 K
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
304.2 K
Qube Research & Technologies2023-12-31
289.6 K
Bridgeway Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
285.4 K
Man Group Plc2023-12-31
194.2 K
Two Sigma Advisers, Llc2023-12-31
184.1 K
Two Sigma Investments Llc2023-12-31
183 K
Ameriprise Financial Inc2023-12-31
179.6 K
Luminus Management, Llc2023-12-31
176.7 K
Driehaus Capital Management Llc2023-12-31
1.9 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
1.3 M
Note, although Heritage Insurance's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Heritage Insurance Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash20.6M163.4M(81.6M)(77.2M)185.8M195.1M
Free Cash Flow114.7M169.5M59.1M(46.6M)60.5M67.6M
Other Non Cash Items2.7M(15.6M)66.5M96.0M(459K)(436.1K)
Capital Expenditures5.0M755K1.0M12.4M9.9M10.4M
Net Income28.6M9.3M(74.7M)(154.4M)45.3M47.6M
End Period Cash Flow283.0M446.4M364.8M287.6M473.3M266.1M
Depreciation10.4M8.1M8.4M8.4M8.7M9.0M
Investments(49.0M)22.8M(126.1M)(40.4M)100.8M105.8M
Change Receivables(108.6M)39.8M70.7M(598.2M)(538.4M)(511.5M)
Net Borrowings(3.1M)(290K)(2.1M)7.1M6.4M6.1M
Dividends Paid7.0M6.9M6.7M4.8M(11K)(10.5K)
Change To Netincome4.5M10.9M55.9M82.4M94.7M99.5M

Heritage Insurance Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Insurance or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Insurance's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.51
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.56
σ
Overall volatility
4.50
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

Heritage Insurance Volatility Alert

Heritage Insurance Hldgs currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.16 and Jensen Alpha of 0.51. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Insurance's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Insurance's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Heritage Insurance Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Heritage Insurance's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Heritage Insurance's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Heritage Insurance and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Heritage Insurance or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Heritage Insurance's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Heritage Insurance to competition
FundamentalsHeritage InsurancePeer Average
Return On Equity0.26-0.31
Return On Asset0.0176-0.14
Profit Margin0.06 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.19 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1.85 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding30.22 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders26.80 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions52.02 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted458.06 K4.71 M
Price To Earning5.09 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.44 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.44 X11.42 X
Revenue737.73 M9.43 B
Gross Profit4.99 M27.38 B
EBITDA63.22 M3.9 B
Net Income45.31 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents290.93 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share11.26 X5.01 X
Total Debt148.19 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.84 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.68 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share7.58 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations70.42 M971.22 M
Short Ratio1.09 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.73 X3.12 X
Target Price10.0
Number Of Employees56618.84 K
Beta0.84-0.15
Market Capitalization322.44 M19.03 B
Total Asset1.41 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings26.12 M9.33 B
Z Score2.08.72
Five Year Return2.79 %
Note: Acquisition by Joseph Vattamattam of 9662 shares of Heritage Insurance subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Heritage Insurance Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Heritage . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Heritage Insurance Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Heritage Insurance Hldgs? Buying financial instruments such as Heritage Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total151.9M170.2M148.2M137.8M
Total Assets2.0B2.4B1.4B1.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Heritage Insurance in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Business Services Thematic Idea Now

Business Services
Business Services Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Business Services theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Business Services Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Heritage Insurance Hldgs is a strong investment it is important to analyze Heritage Insurance's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Heritage Insurance's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Heritage Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Heritage Insurance Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Heritage Stock analysis

When running Heritage Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Heritage Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heritage Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Heritage Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heritage Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heritage Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heritage Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Heritage Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Insurance. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.378
Earnings Share
1.73
Revenue Per Share
28.08
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.071
Return On Assets
0.0176
The market value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.