National Fuel Gas Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NFG Stock | USD 55.27 1.52 2.83% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding National Fuel Gas is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides National Fuel buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NFG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of National Fuel's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting National Fuel's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 55.24 | Target Price 62 | Hype Value 53.75 | Market Value 55.27 | Naive Value 53.37 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell National Fuel Gas given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards National Fuel. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for National Fuel Gas, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
National |
Execute National Fuel Buy or Sell Advice
The National recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on National Fuel Gas. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in National Fuel Gas or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute National Fuel's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Barely shadows the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
National Fuel Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company has 2.67 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.52, which is OK given its current industry classification. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist National Fuel until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Fuel's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Fuel Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Fuel's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 76.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of April 2024 National Fuel paid $ 0.495 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: National Fuel Schedules Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Conference Call |
National Fuel Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of National Fuel's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of National Fuel's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of National Fuel daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use National Fuel Gas price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of National Fuel returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for National Fuel.
| Mean Return | 0.20 | Value At Risk | -2.08 | Potential Upside | 2.50 | Standard Deviation | 1.44 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of National Fuel historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
National Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as National Fuel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Fuel Gas backward and forwards among themselves. National Fuel's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase National Fuel's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 992.7 K | Equity Investment Corp | 2023-12-31 | 972.7 K | Victory Capital Management Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 890.5 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 883.3 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 882.7 K | Millennium Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 759.9 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 748.1 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 13.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 8.3 M |
National Fuel Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (6.6M) | (2.0M) | 3.1M | (8.4M) | (9.7M) | (9.2M) | |
| Change In Cash | (6.7M) | 99.6M | 17.6M | (82.3M) | (74.0M) | (70.3M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (481.6M) | 39.8M | 695K | 227.2M | 204.5M | 214.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 6.5M | 26.6M | 714K | 19.6M | 17.7M | 16.8M | |
| Dividends Paid | 153.3M | 163.1M | 168.1M | 176.1M | 202.5M | 119.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 1.2B | 751.7M | 811.8M | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.2B | |
| Net Income | (123.8M) | 363.6M | 566.0M | 476.9M | 548.4M | 575.8M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 20.5M | 120.1M | 137.7M | 55.4M | 63.8M | 114.1M | |
| Depreciation | 755.6M | 360.4M | 369.8M | 409.6M | 471.0M | 318.2M | |
| Change Receivables | 6.4M | (2.6M) | (61.4M) | (168.8M) | (151.9M) | (144.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 82.5M | 174.8M | 124.6M | 191.7M | 220.4M | 231.5M | |
| Investments | (1.2B) | (633.2M) | (518.7M) | (1.1B) | (1.0B) | (1.1B) | |
| Net Borrowings | 467.8M | 108.1M | (98.5M) | (24.2M) | (21.8M) | (20.7M) |
National Fuel Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to National Fuel or Gas Utilities sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that National Fuel's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a National stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
National Fuel Volatility Alert
National Fuel Gas has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.16 and kurtosis of 4.59. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure National Fuel's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact National Fuel's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.National Fuel Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing National Fuel's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze National Fuel's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between National Fuel and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as National Fuel or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of National Fuel's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Fuel by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare National Fuel to competition |
| Fundamentals | National Fuel | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.054 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.22 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.40 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.58 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 92.13 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.23 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 75.65 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 3.59 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 11.98 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.54 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.40 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 2.17 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.18 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 476.87 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 55.45 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 4.73 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.67 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.52 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.53 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 34.46 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.24 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.68 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 4.77 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.05 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 64.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.24 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.65 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.95 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 8.28 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.89 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (391.88 M) | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by David Anderson of 820 shares of National Fuel subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
National Fuel Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as National . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About National Fuel Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell National Fuel Gas? Buying financial instruments such as National Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 2.7B | 2.7B | 3.1B | 1.7B | Total Assets | 7.9B | 8.3B | 9.5B | 5.2B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having National Fuel in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Fabricated Products Thematic Idea Now
Fabricated Products
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Fabricated Products theme has 11 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Fabricated Products Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out National Fuel Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the National Fuel Gas information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Fuel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Fuel's price analysis, check to measure National Fuel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Fuel is operating at the current time. Most of National Fuel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Fuel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Fuel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Fuel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Fuel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 4.77 | Revenue Per Share 22.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.