Nrg Energy Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

NRG Stock  USD 66.62  0.74  1.12%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding NRG Energy is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides NRG Energy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NRG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of NRG Energy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting NRG Energy's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
58.02
Target Price
41.75
Hype Value
66.96
Market Value
66.62
Naive Value
64.45
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell NRG Energy given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards NRG Energy. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for NRG Energy, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out NRG Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For more detail on how to invest in NRG Stock please use our How to Invest in NRG Energy guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as NRG and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards NRG Energy. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.

Execute NRG Energy Buy or Sell Advice

The NRG recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on NRG Energy. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in NRG Energy or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute NRG Energy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell NRG EnergyBuy NRG Energy
Strong Buy

Market Performance

SolidDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon NRG Energy has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1897, Jensen Alpha of 0.3817, Total Risk Alpha of 0.1369, Sortino Ratio of 0.2868 and Treynor Ratio of 0.888
Macroaxis provides unbiased advice on NRG Energy that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on NRG Energy. Our investment recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure NRG Energy is not overpriced, please verify all NRG Energy fundamentals, including its number of shares shorted, total debt, beta, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and short ratio . Given that NRG Energy has a price to book of 6.27 X, we recommend you to check NRG Energy market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself next year given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

NRG Energy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company reported the last year's revenue of 28.82 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (202 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.1 B.
NRG Energy has about 430 M in cash with (221 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.47.
NRG Energy has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of February 2024 NRG Energy paid $ 0.4075 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investing.com: NRG Energy appoints new President of Consumer Division

NRG Energy Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of NRG Energy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of NRG Energy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of NRG Energy daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use NRG Energy price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of NRG Energy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for NRG Energy.
Mean Return
0.45
Value At Risk
-1.37
Potential Upside
3.04
Standard Deviation
1.37
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of NRG Energy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

NRG Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as NRG Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NRG Energy backward and forwards among themselves. NRG Energy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase NRG Energy's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Permian Investment Partners2023-12-31
4.7 M
Lyrical Asset Management Lp2023-12-31
4.1 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
M
Two Sigma Advisers, Llc2023-12-31
3.9 M
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.2023-12-31
3.1 M
Two Sigma Investments Llc2023-12-31
2.5 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
2.3 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
2.3 M
Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa2023-12-31
2.2 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
28 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
21.9 M
Note, although NRG Energy's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

NRG Energy Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(228M)3.5B(2.8B)1.1B(1.5B)(1.5B)
Free Cash Flow1.2B1.6B224M(13M)(843M)(800.9M)
Depreciation463M559M942M846M1.3B760.8M
Other Non Cash Items3.7B126M(146M)889M(1.6B)(1.6B)
Capital Expenditures228M230M269M373M622M861.7M
Net Income4.1B510M2.2B1.2B(202M)(191.9M)
End Period Cash Flow385M3.9B1.1B2.2B649M616.6M
Change To Inventory22M27M(61M)(252M)189M198.5M
Change To Netincome114M152M(1.8B)(56M)(50.4M)(52.9M)
Dividends Paid32M295M319M332M(381M)(362.0M)
Investments(35M)(53M)(3.0B)(332M)(2.8B)(2.6B)
Change Receivables(83M)5M(1.2B)(1.6B)(1.4B)(1.3B)
Net Borrowings(716M)2.7B(761M)(14M)(12.6M)(12.0M)

NRG Energy Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to NRG Energy or Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that NRG Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a NRG stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.38
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.50
σ
Overall volatility
1.41
Ir
Information ratio 0.23

NRG Energy Volatility Alert

NRG Energy has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.25 and kurtosis of 0.27. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure NRG Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact NRG Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

NRG Energy Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing NRG Energy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze NRG Energy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between NRG Energy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as NRG Energy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of NRG Energy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NRG Energy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare NRG Energy to competition
FundamentalsNRG EnergyPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.06-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0239-0.14
Profit Margin(0.01) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.08) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation25.23 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding214.73 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders1.46 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions98.54 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted15.73 M4.71 M
Price To Earning20.37 X28.72 X
Price To Book6.27 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.50 X11.42 X
Revenue28.82 B9.43 B
Gross Profit4.1 B27.38 B
EBITDA325 M3.9 B
Net Income(202 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents430 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share2.47 X5.01 X
Total Debt10.97 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.57 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.29 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share10.84 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations(221 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio5.17 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(1.12) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth2.40 X4.89 X
Target Price59.8
Number Of Employees18.13 K18.84 K
Beta1.1-0.15
Market Capitalization14.31 B19.03 B
Total Asset26.04 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings820 M9.33 B
Working Capital227 M1.48 B
Note: Disposition of tradable shares by Howell Kevin of NRG Energy subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

NRG Energy Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as NRG . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About NRG Energy Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell NRG Energy? Buying financial instruments such as NRG Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total8.3B8.3B11.0B10.1B
Total Assets23.2B29.1B26.0B20.9B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having NRG Energy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Manufacturing Thematic Idea Now

Manufacturing
Manufacturing Theme
Companies that provide goods across residential, commercial and industrial construction such as machinery, tools, or lumber production. The Manufacturing theme has 20 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Manufacturing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether NRG Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze NRG Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NRG Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NRG Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out NRG Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For more detail on how to invest in NRG Stock please use our How to Invest in NRG Energy guide.
You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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Is NRG Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NRG Energy. If investors know NRG will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NRG Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.946
Dividend Share
1.54
Earnings Share
(1.12)
Revenue Per Share
126.417
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
The market value of NRG Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NRG that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NRG Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NRG Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NRG Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NRG Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NRG Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NRG Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NRG Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.