Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| PMT Stock | USD 13.56 0.29 2.19% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding PennyMac Mortgage Investment is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides PennyMac Mortgage buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding PMT positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of PennyMac Mortgage's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting PennyMac Mortgage's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 13.58 | Target Price 13.64 | Hype Value 13.24 | Market Value 13.56 | Naive Value 13.01 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell PennyMac Mortgage Investment given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards PennyMac Mortgage. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for PennyMac Mortgage Investment, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
PennyMac |
Execute PennyMac Mortgage Buy or Sell Advice
The PennyMac recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on PennyMac Mortgage Investment. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in PennyMac Mortgage Investment or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute PennyMac Mortgage's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
PennyMac Mortgage Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| PennyMac Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 10.47 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.24, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. PennyMac Mortgage has a current ratio of 0.84, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist PennyMac Mortgage until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, PennyMac Mortgage's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like PennyMac Mortgage sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for PennyMac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about PennyMac Mortgage's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| PennyMac Mortgage has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 70.0% of PennyMac Mortgage shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Patriot Battery Metals to Present at OTCQX Best 50 Virtual Investor Conference April 18th |
PennyMac Mortgage Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of PennyMac Mortgage's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of PennyMac Mortgage daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use PennyMac Mortgage Investment price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of PennyMac Mortgage returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for PennyMac Mortgage.
| Mean Return | -0.08 | Value At Risk | -2.79 | Potential Upside | 1.83 | Standard Deviation | 1.54 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of PennyMac Mortgage historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
PennyMac Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as PennyMac Mortgage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PennyMac Mortgage Investment backward and forwards among themselves. PennyMac Mortgage's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase PennyMac Mortgage's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-09-30 | 842 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 689 K | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 654.3 K | Mirae Asset Global Investments (korea) Co Ltd | 2023-09-30 | 646.2 K | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2023-12-31 | 615.6 K | Wolverine Asset Management Llc | 2023-09-30 | 583.1 K | Allianz Asset Management Ag | 2023-12-31 | 558 K | Van Eck Associates Corporation | 2023-09-30 | 453.8 K | Principal Financial Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 452.2 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 15.2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-09-30 | 10 M |
PennyMac Mortgage Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 44.2M | (46.4M) | 1.3M | 52.9M | 169.2M | 177.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (3.0B) | 671.7M | (2.8B) | 1.8B | 1.3B | 1.4B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (3.3B) | (3.8M) | (2.4B) | 1.8B | 1.0B | 1.1B | |
| Net Income | 226.4M | 52.4M | 56.9M | (73.3M) | 199.7M | 111.4M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 104.1M | 57.7M | 59.0M | 111.9M | 281.1M | 295.1M | |
| Dividends Paid | 165.9M | 176.5M | 214.1M | 215.4M | (182.4M) | (173.3M) | |
| Depreciation | 81.6M | 94.3M | 383.7M | 6.7M | 110K | 104.5K | |
| Change To Netincome | (3.3B) | (20.5M) | (2.4B) | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.5B | |
| Investments | (704.7M) | (15.4M) | (40.7M) | (1.9B) | (464.3M) | (487.5M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 3.1B | (468.8M) | 1.8B | 453.9M | 522.0M | 636.9M |
PennyMac Mortgage Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to PennyMac Mortgage or Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that PennyMac Mortgage's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a PennyMac stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
PennyMac Mortgage Volatility Alert
PennyMac Mortgage Investment exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.79 and kurtosis of 1.13. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure PennyMac Mortgage's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact PennyMac Mortgage's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.PennyMac Mortgage Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing PennyMac Mortgage's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze PennyMac Mortgage's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between PennyMac Mortgage and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as PennyMac Mortgage or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of PennyMac Mortgage's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PennyMac Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare PennyMac Mortgage to competition |
| Fundamentals | PennyMac Mortgage | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.1 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0148 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.28 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.13 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 11.79 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 86.65 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.20 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 70.26 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.93 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 56.52 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.83 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.62 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.46 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | (321.2 M) | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (25.07 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 199.65 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 349.38 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.86 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 10.47 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 5.24 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.86 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 16.34 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.34 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.61 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.63 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.12 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 14.67 | |
| Number Of Employees | 7 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.43 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.15 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 13.11 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (508.69 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (3.78 B) | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 1977 shares by William Chang of PennyMac Mortgage at 14.2 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
PennyMac Mortgage Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as PennyMac . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17024.57 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.29 |
About PennyMac Mortgage Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell PennyMac Mortgage Investment? Buying financial instruments such as PennyMac Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Stockholder Equity | 2.4B | 2.0B | 2.0B | 1.6B | Total Current Liabilities | 96.2M | 3.0B | 3.7B | 3.9B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having PennyMac Mortgage in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out PennyMac Mortgage Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for PennyMac Stock analysis
When running PennyMac Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure PennyMac Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennyMac Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of PennyMac Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennyMac Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennyMac Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PennyMac Mortgage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PennyMac Mortgage. If investors know PennyMac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PennyMac Mortgage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 50.468 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share 8.308 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.037 |
The market value of PennyMac Mortgage is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PennyMac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PennyMac Mortgage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PennyMac Mortgage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PennyMac Mortgage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PennyMac Mortgage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PennyMac Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PennyMac Mortgage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PennyMac Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.