Valley National Bancorp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| VLY Stock | USD 7.84 0.06 0.76% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Valley National Bancorp is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Valley National buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding VLY positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Valley National's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Valley National's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 8.57 | Target Price 10.4 | Hype Value 7.86 | Market Value 7.84 | Naive Value 7.8 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Valley National Bancorp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Valley National. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Valley National Bancorp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Valley |
Execute Valley National Buy or Sell Advice
The Valley recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Valley National Bancorp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Valley National Bancorp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Valley National's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Somewhat reliable | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Valley National Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Valley National generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Valley National has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Valley National has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 2nd of April 2024 Valley National paid $ 0.11 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Exploring April 2024s Noteworthy US Dividend Stocks |
Valley National Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Valley National's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Valley National's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Valley National daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Valley National Bancorp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Valley National returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Valley National.
| Mean Return | -0.33 | Value At Risk | -7.77 | Potential Upside | 3.81 | Standard Deviation | 3.32 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Valley National historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Valley Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Valley National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valley National Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Valley National's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Valley National's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Victory Capital Management Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 5.1 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 4.6 M | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2023-09-30 | 3.9 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 3.3 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Deprince Race & Zollo Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Lsv Asset Management | 2023-12-31 | 2.1 M | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 1.9 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 64.6 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 45.6 M |
Valley National Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 6.1M | 894.5M | 720.7M | (1.1B) | (56.7M) | (53.9M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (989.3M) | 151.5M | (225.8M) | 1.4B | 291.8M | 306.4M | |
| Depreciation | 71.4M | 82.3M | 76.8M | 110.5M | 83.2M | 87.4M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 1.2B | (68.2M) | 219.1M | 183.9M | 27.7M | 26.3M | |
| Dividends Paid | 159.2M | 190.7M | 192.4M | 219.1M | 239.7M | 251.7M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 2.5B | 24.6M | 1.1B | 125.8M | 76.0M | 72.2M | |
| Net Income | 309.8M | 390.6M | 473.8M | 568.9M | 498.5M | 523.4M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 434.7M | 1.3B | 2.0B | 947.9M | 891.2M | 482.9M | |
| Investments | (2.3B) | (2.1B) | (344.6M) | (7.0B) | (5.1B) | (4.8B) | |
| Change Receivables | 1.4M | (593K) | 11.5M | (74.0M) | (66.6M) | (63.3M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (976.1M) | 225.3M | (1.4B) | (473.3M) | (426.0M) | (404.7M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 1.2B | (230.7M) | 265.9M | 143.4M | 164.9M | 236.6M |
Valley National Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Valley National or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Valley National's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Valley stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.54 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Valley National Volatility Alert
Valley National Bancorp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.66 and kurtosis of 0.18. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Valley National's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Valley National's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Valley National Implied Volatility
Valley National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valley National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valley National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valley National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valley National's options are near their expiration.
Valley National Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Valley National's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Valley National's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Valley National and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Valley National or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Valley National's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valley National by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Valley National to competition |
| Fundamentals | Valley National | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0761 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0084 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.27 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.41 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.04 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 508.89 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.46 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 76.05 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 39.7 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 12.60 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.58 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.06 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 3.36 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 39.77 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 498.51 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.72 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.39 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 3.71 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 8.79 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 12.79 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 367.84 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 5.19 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.95 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.32 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 10.09 | |
| Number Of Employees | 3.75 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.1 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.02 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 61.06 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.47 B | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.06 % | |
| Five Year Return | 4.08 % |
Note: Disposition of 17754 shares by Mendelson Avner of Valley National at 7.96 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Valley National Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Valley . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Valley National Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Valley National Bancorp? Buying financial instruments such as Valley Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 2.4B | 2.1B | 3.7B | 2.1B | Total Assets | 43.4B | 57.5B | 61.1B | 64.1B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Valley National in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Banks - Regional Thematic Idea Now
Banks - Regional
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Banks - Regional theme has 18 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Banks - Regional Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Valley National Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for Valley Stock analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valley National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valley National. If investors know Valley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valley National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Dividend Share 0.44 | Earnings Share 0.95 | Revenue Per Share 3.592 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of Valley National Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valley National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valley National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valley National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valley National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valley National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valley National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valley National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.