Aarons Backtesting

Aarons Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 47.37  2.07  4.57%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Aarons Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Aarons over given investment horizon. Check also Aarons Hype Analysis, Aarons Correlation, Aarons Valuation, Aarons Volatility as well as analyze Aarons Alpha and Beta and Aarons Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Aarons 'What if' Analysis

February 22, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
March 24, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in Aarons on February 22, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aarons Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aarons over 30 days. Aarons is related to or competes with Macys, Dollar General, Home Depot, Dollar Tree, Vipshop Holdings, and . Aarons, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions

Aarons Upside/Downside Indicators


Aarons Market Premium Indicators

Aarons Inc lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Aarons regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Aarons Inc Backtested Returns

We consider Aarons not too risky. Aarons Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0846 which signifies that Aarons Inc had 0.0846% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Aarons Inc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Aarons Inc Downside Deviation of 1.49, Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0868 and Mean Deviation of 1.15 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1193%. Aarons has performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0641 which signifies that as returns on market increase, Aarons returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Aarons will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Aarons Inc historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Aarons Inc technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1193% will be sustainable into the future. Aarons Inc right now shows a risk of 1.4099%. Please confirm Aarons Inc Value At Risk, and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to decide if Aarons Inc will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.81) 

Excellent reverse predictability

Aarons Inc has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aarons time series from February 22, 2018 to March 9, 2018 and March 9, 2018 to March 24, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aarons Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Aarons price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Aarons Inc has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Aarons for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.81
Spearman Rank Test -0.9
Price Variance 1.06
Lagged Price Variance 1.66

Aarons Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Aarons Performance vs DOW

The median price of Aarons for the period between Thu, Feb 22, 2018 and Sat, Mar 24, 2018 is 47.37 with a coefficient of variation of 2.77. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 1.3, arithmetic mean of 47.05, and mean deviation of 1.09. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
 Price Growth (%)  
Aarons, Inc. has a value of 45.94 per share While Smart Fina...03/23/2018