Aarons Backtesting

AAN -- USA Stock  

USD 44.90  1.20  2.60%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Aarons and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Aarons over given investment horizon. Check also Aarons Hype Analysis, Aarons Correlation, Aarons Valuation, Aarons Volatility as well as analyze Aarons Alpha and Beta and Aarons Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Aarons 'What if' Analysis

June 21, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
July 21, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in Aarons on June 21, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aarons or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aarons over 30 days. Aarons is related to or competes with Air Lease, eHi Car, AeroCentury Corp, Aircastle, CAI International, and AVIS BUDGET. Aarons, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions

Aarons Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation1.5
Information Ratio0.010235
Maximum Drawdown4.52
Value At Risk1.40
Potential Upside1.86

Aarons Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.0525
Jensen Alpha0.1038
Total Risk Alpha0.20
Sortino Ratio0.010298
Treynor Ratio3.45

Aarons Backtested Returns

We consider Aarons not too volatile. Aarons secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0697 which signifies that Aarons had 0.0697% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Aarons which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Aarons Downside Deviation of 1.5, Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0525 and Mean Deviation of 1.01 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1074%. Aarons has performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0312 which signifies that as returns on market increase, Aarons returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Aarons will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Aarons historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Aarons technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1074% will be sustainable into the future. Aarons right now shows a risk of 1.5412%. Please confirm Aarons Value At Risk, and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to decide if Aarons will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.35) 

Poor reverse predictability

Aarons has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aarons time series from June 21, 2018 to July 6, 2018 and July 6, 2018 to July 21, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aarons price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Aarons price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Aarons has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Aarons for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.35
Spearman Rank Test -0.65
Price Variance 0.56
Lagged Price Variance 0.49

Aarons lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Aarons regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Aarons Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

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Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aarons and Ryder System. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Check also Aarons Hype Analysis, Aarons Correlation, Aarons Valuation, Aarons Volatility as well as analyze Aarons Alpha and Beta and Aarons Performance. Please also try Pattern Recognition module to use different pattern recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.