Americafirst Tactical Alpha Fund Market Value
| ABRFX Fund | USD 13.13 0.15 1.13% |
| Symbol | Americafirst |
Americafirst Tactical 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Americafirst Tactical's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Americafirst Tactical.
| 03/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Americafirst Tactical on March 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Americafirst Tactical Alpha or generate 0.0% return on investment in Americafirst Tactical over 30 days. Americafirst Tactical is related to or competes with All Asset, and Pimco All. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily through long positions in global equity markets and U.S More
Americafirst Tactical Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Americafirst Tactical's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Americafirst Tactical Alpha upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.23 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.33 |
Americafirst Tactical Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Americafirst Tactical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Americafirst Tactical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Americafirst Tactical historical prices to predict the future Americafirst Tactical's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Americafirst Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Americafirst Tactical Backtested Returns
Americafirst Tactical secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0397, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0397% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Americafirst Tactical Alpha exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Americafirst Tactical's mean deviation of 1.2, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.61, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Americafirst Tactical will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
Americafirst Tactical Alpha has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Americafirst Tactical time series from 19th of March 2024 to 3rd of April 2024 and 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Americafirst Tactical price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current Americafirst Tactical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.95 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
Americafirst Tactical lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Americafirst Tactical mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Americafirst Tactical's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Americafirst Tactical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Americafirst Tactical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Tactical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Americafirst Tactical mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Americafirst Tactical mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Americafirst Tactical mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Tactical Lagged Returns
When evaluating Americafirst Tactical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Americafirst Tactical mutual fund have on its future price. Americafirst Tactical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Americafirst Tactical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Americafirst Tactical mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Americafirst Tactical Alpha.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Americafirst Tactical
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Americafirst Tactical position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Americafirst Tactical will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Americafirst Mutual Fund
| 1.0 | ABRUX | Americafirst Monthly | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | ABRWX | Americafirst Tactical | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Americafirst Tactical could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Americafirst Tactical when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Americafirst Tactical - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Americafirst Tactical Alpha to buy it.
The correlation of Americafirst Tactical is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Americafirst Tactical moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Americafirst Tactical moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Americafirst Tactical can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Americafirst Tactical Correlation, Americafirst Tactical Volatility and Americafirst Tactical Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Americafirst Tactical. Note that the Americafirst Tactical information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Americafirst Tactical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Americafirst Tactical technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.