Aluar Aluminio (Argentina) Market Value
ALUA Stock | ARS 888.00 40.00 4.31% |
Symbol | Aluar |
Aluar Aluminio 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aluar Aluminio's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aluar Aluminio.
04/03/2023 |
| 03/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aluar Aluminio on April 3, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aluar Aluminio Argentino or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aluar Aluminio over 360 days. Aluar Aluminio is related to or competes with United States, Harmony Gold, Transportadora, and Telecom Argentina. Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. produces and sells aluminum products worldwide More
Aluar Aluminio Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aluar Aluminio's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aluar Aluminio Argentino upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
Maximum Drawdown | 16.5 | |||
Value At Risk | (5.79) | |||
Potential Upside | 7.61 |
Aluar Aluminio Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aluar Aluminio's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aluar Aluminio's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aluar Aluminio historical prices to predict the future Aluar Aluminio's volatility.Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0061 | |||
Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
Total Risk Alpha | (0.94) | |||
Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aluar Aluminio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aluar Aluminio Argentino Backtested Returns
We consider Aluar Aluminio very steady. Aluar Aluminio Argentino secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0051, which signifies that the company had a 0.0051% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-three technical indicators for Aluar Aluminio Argentino, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Aluar Aluminio's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0061, standard deviation of 4.09, and Mean Deviation of 3.27 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0205%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.86, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Aluar Aluminio returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aluar Aluminio is expected to follow. Aluar Aluminio Argentino right now shows a risk of 4.0%. Please confirm Aluar Aluminio Argentino maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Aluar Aluminio Argentino will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.33 |
Poor reverse predictability
Aluar Aluminio Argentino has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aluar Aluminio time series from 3rd of April 2023 to 30th of September 2023 and 30th of September 2023 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aluar Aluminio Argentino price movement. The serial correlation of -0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Aluar Aluminio price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient | -0.33 | |
Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
Residual Average | 0.0 | |
Price Variance | 13.2 K |
Aluar Aluminio Argentino lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aluar Aluminio stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aluar Aluminio's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aluar Aluminio returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aluar Aluminio has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
Timeline |
Aluar Aluminio regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aluar Aluminio stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aluar Aluminio stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aluar Aluminio stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
Timeline |
Aluar Aluminio Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aluar Aluminio's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aluar Aluminio stock have on its future price. Aluar Aluminio autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aluar Aluminio autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aluar Aluminio stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aluar Aluminio Argentino.
Regressed Prices |
Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aluar Aluminio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aluar Aluminio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aluar Aluminio options trading.
Pair Trading with Aluar Aluminio
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aluar Aluminio position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aluar Aluminio will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aluar Stock
0.91 | CRES | Cresud SA | PairCorr |
0.75 | IRSA | IRSA Inversiones Y | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aluar Aluminio could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aluar Aluminio when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aluar Aluminio - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aluar Aluminio Argentino to buy it.
The correlation of Aluar Aluminio is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aluar Aluminio moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aluar Aluminio Argentino moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aluar Aluminio can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Aluar Aluminio Correlation, Aluar Aluminio Volatility and Aluar Aluminio Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Aluar Aluminio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Aluar Stock analysis
When running Aluar Aluminio's price analysis, check to measure Aluar Aluminio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aluar Aluminio is operating at the current time. Most of Aluar Aluminio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aluar Aluminio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aluar Aluminio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aluar Aluminio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Aluar Aluminio technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.