Avgol Industries (Israel) Market Value

AVGL Stock   139.30  0.30  0.21%   
Avgol Industries' market value is the price at which a share of Avgol Industries trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Avgol Industries 1953 investors about its performance. Avgol Industries is trading at 139.30 as of the 28th of March 2024, a -0.21 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 139.6.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Avgol Industries 1953 and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Avgol Industries over a given investment horizon. Check out Avgol Industries Correlation, Avgol Industries Volatility and Avgol Industries Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Avgol Industries.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Avgol Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avgol Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avgol Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Avgol Industries 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Avgol Industries' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Avgol Industries.
0.00
02/27/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Avgol Industries on February 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Avgol Industries 1953 or generate 0.0% return on investment in Avgol Industries over 30 days. Avgol Industries is related to or competes with Israel China, Big Tech, Global Knafaim, and Delek. Avgol Industries 1953 Ltd manufactures and supplies nonwoven fabrics primarily for manufacturers of baby diapers, adult ... More

Avgol Industries Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Avgol Industries' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Avgol Industries 1953 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Avgol Industries Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Avgol Industries' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Avgol Industries' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Avgol Industries historical prices to predict the future Avgol Industries' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avgol Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
137.33139.30141.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
120.23122.20153.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
138.78140.75142.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
139.12139.40139.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Avgol Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Avgol Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Avgol Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Avgol Industries 1953.

Avgol Industries 1953 Backtested Returns

Avgol Industries 1953 secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.13, which signifies that the company had a -0.13% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Avgol Industries 1953 exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Avgol Industries' risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Mean Deviation of 1.83 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.26, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Avgol Industries' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Avgol Industries is expected to be smaller as well. Avgol Industries 1953 has an expected return of -0.26%. Please make sure to confirm Avgol Industries 1953 coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Avgol Industries 1953 performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.08  

Very weak reverse predictability

Avgol Industries 1953 has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Avgol Industries time series from 27th of February 2024 to 13th of March 2024 and 13th of March 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Avgol Industries 1953 price movement. The serial correlation of -0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current Avgol Industries price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.08
Spearman Rank Test0.12
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance3.62

Avgol Industries 1953 lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Avgol Industries stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Avgol Industries' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Avgol Industries returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Avgol Industries has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Avgol Industries regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Avgol Industries stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Avgol Industries stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Avgol Industries stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Avgol Industries Lagged Returns

When evaluating Avgol Industries' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Avgol Industries stock have on its future price. Avgol Industries autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Avgol Industries autocorrelation shows the relationship between Avgol Industries stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Avgol Industries 1953.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Avgol Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Avgol Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Avgol Industries options trading.

Pair Trading with Avgol Industries

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Avgol Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Avgol Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Avgol Stock

  0.73BEZQ Bezeq Israeli TelecoPairCorr
  0.71BCOM B CommunicationsPairCorr

Moving against Avgol Stock

  0.79AZRG Azrieli GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Avgol Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Avgol Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Avgol Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Avgol Industries 1953 to buy it.
The correlation of Avgol Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Avgol Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Avgol Industries 1953 moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Avgol Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Avgol Industries Correlation, Avgol Industries Volatility and Avgol Industries Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Avgol Industries.
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Avgol Industries technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Avgol Industries technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Avgol Industries trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...