Berwyn Income Fund Market Value
| BERIX Fund | USD 12.76 0.04 0.31% |
| Symbol | Berwyn |
Berwyn Income 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Berwyn Income's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Berwyn Income.
| 05/30/2023 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Berwyn Income on May 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Berwyn Income Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Berwyn Income over 330 days. Berwyn Income is related to or competes with Putnam Global, Health Care, Fidelity Advisor, Alger Health, Invesco Global, and Highland Longshort. Treasury bills, bonds and notes, debt securities issued by U.S More
Berwyn Income Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Berwyn Income's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Berwyn Income Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.4482 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.21) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.77) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.48 |
Berwyn Income Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Berwyn Income's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Berwyn Income's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Berwyn Income historical prices to predict the future Berwyn Income's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0288 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0114 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.17) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Berwyn Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Berwyn Me Fund Backtested Returns
We consider Berwyn Income very steady. Berwyn Me Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0586, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0586% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Berwyn Income Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Berwyn Income's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0288, downside deviation of 0.4482, and Mean Deviation of 0.2571 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0206%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0091, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Berwyn Income are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Berwyn Income is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.5 |
Modest reverse predictability
Berwyn Income Fund has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Berwyn Income time series from 30th of May 2023 to 11th of November 2023 and 11th of November 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Berwyn Me Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current Berwyn Income price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Berwyn Me Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Berwyn Income mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Berwyn Income's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Berwyn Income returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Berwyn Income has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Berwyn Income regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Berwyn Income mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Berwyn Income mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Berwyn Income mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Berwyn Income Lagged Returns
When evaluating Berwyn Income's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Berwyn Income mutual fund have on its future price. Berwyn Income autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Berwyn Income autocorrelation shows the relationship between Berwyn Income mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Berwyn Income Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Berwyn Income
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Berwyn Income position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Berwyn Income will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Berwyn Mutual Fund
| 0.72 | VWINX | Vanguard Wellesley | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | VWIAX | Vanguard Wellesley | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | BKMIX | Blackrock Multi Asset | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | HBLTX | Hartford Balanced | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | HBLRX | Hartford Balanced | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Berwyn Income could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Berwyn Income when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Berwyn Income - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Berwyn Income Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Berwyn Income is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Berwyn Income moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Berwyn Me Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Berwyn Income can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Berwyn Income Correlation, Berwyn Income Volatility and Berwyn Income Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Berwyn Income. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Berwyn Income technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.