Ginnie Mae Fund Market Value
| BGNAX Fund | USD 8.61 0.04 0.46% |
| Symbol | Ginnie |
Ginnie Mae 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ginnie Mae's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ginnie Mae.
| 02/19/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ginnie Mae on February 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ginnie Mae Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ginnie Mae over 60 days. Ginnie Mae is related to or competes with Inflation Adjusted, Ginnie Mae, Short Term, Diversified Bond, and Balanced Fund. Under normal market conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in securities issued by the Gover... More
Ginnie Mae Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ginnie Mae's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ginnie Mae Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.24) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.04 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.5741 |
Ginnie Mae Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ginnie Mae's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ginnie Mae's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ginnie Mae historical prices to predict the future Ginnie Mae's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.17) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ginnie Mae's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ginnie Mae Fund Backtested Returns
Ginnie Mae Fund holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0802, which attests that the entity had a -0.0802% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ginnie Mae Fund exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Ginnie Mae's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), market risk adjusted performance of (0.16), and Standard Deviation of 0.4597 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.3, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ginnie Mae's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ginnie Mae is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.3 |
Weak reverse predictability
Ginnie Mae Fund has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ginnie Mae time series from 19th of February 2024 to 20th of March 2024 and 20th of March 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ginnie Mae Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current Ginnie Mae price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.3 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Ginnie Mae Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ginnie Mae mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ginnie Mae's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ginnie Mae returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ginnie Mae has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ginnie Mae regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ginnie Mae mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ginnie Mae mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ginnie Mae mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ginnie Mae Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ginnie Mae's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ginnie Mae mutual fund have on its future price. Ginnie Mae autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ginnie Mae autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ginnie Mae mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ginnie Mae Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ginnie Mae in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ginnie Mae's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ginnie Mae options trading.
Pair Trading with Ginnie Mae
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ginnie Mae position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ginnie Mae will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ginnie Mutual Fund
| 0.99 | CDBCX | Diversified Bond | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | TWACX | Short Term Government | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ginnie Mae could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ginnie Mae when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ginnie Mae - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ginnie Mae Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Ginnie Mae is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ginnie Mae moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ginnie Mae Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ginnie Mae can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Ginnie Mae Correlation, Ginnie Mae Volatility and Ginnie Mae Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ginnie Mae. Note that the Ginnie Mae Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ginnie Mae's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Ginnie Mae technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.