BP Backtesting

BP -- USA Stock  

USD 45.78  1.62  3.67%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of BP and determine expected loss or profit from investing in BP over given investment horizon. Check also BP Hype Analysis, BP Correlation, BP Valuation, BP Volatility as well as analyze BP Alpha and Beta and BP Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

BP 'What if' Analysis

May 26, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
June 25, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in BP on May 26, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding BP or generate 0.0% return on investment in BP over 30 days. BP is related to or competes with Eni SPA, Antero Resources, CJ Energy, Delek US, Diamond Offshore, and Ecopetrol SA. It operates through three segments Upstream, Downstream, and Rosneft

BP Upside/Downside Indicators

Information Ratio0.033891
Maximum Drawdown5.45
Value At Risk2.82
Potential Upside2.63

BP Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.01

BP Backtested Returns

We consider BP not too risky. BP secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1005 which signifies that BP had 0.1005% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for BP which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm BP Mean Deviation of 1.11 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.01 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1476%. BP has performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0 which signifies that the returns on MARKET and BP are completely uncorrelated. Although it is extremely important to respect BP historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing BP technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1476% will be sustainable into the future. BP right now shows a risk of 1.4692%. Please confirm BP Information Ratio, and the relationship between Downside Deviation and Value At Risk to decide if BP will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.80) 

Almost perfect reverse predictability

BP has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BP time series from May 26, 2018 to June 10, 2018 and June 10, 2018 to June 25, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BP price movement. The serial correlation of -0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current BP price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that BP has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of BP for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.8
Spearman Rank Test -0.61
Price Variance 0.68
Lagged Price Variance 0.58

BP lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

BP regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

BP Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Current Sentiment - BP

BP Investor Sentiment
Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on BP. What is your opinion about investing in BP? Are you bullish or bearish?
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BP and Eni S p. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Check also BP Hype Analysis, BP Correlation, BP Valuation, BP Volatility as well as analyze BP Alpha and Beta and BP Performance. Please also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.