Commerce Bancshares Stock Market Value
| CBSH Stock | USD 55.92 0.82 1.49% |
| Symbol | Commerce |
Commerce Bancshares Price To Book Ratio
Is Commerce Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 1.041 | Earnings Share 3.64 | Revenue Per Share 12.095 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Commerce Bancshares 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commerce Bancshares' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commerce Bancshares.
| 01/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commerce Bancshares on January 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commerce Bancshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commerce Bancshares over 90 days. Commerce Bancshares is related to or competes with BOK Financial, Texas Capital, United Bankshares, Prosperity Bancshares, BancFirst, First Financial, and UMB Financial. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking,... More
Commerce Bancshares Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commerce Bancshares' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commerce Bancshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.04 |
Commerce Bancshares Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commerce Bancshares' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commerce Bancshares' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commerce Bancshares historical prices to predict the future Commerce Bancshares' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0202 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0215 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Bancshares Backtested Returns
We consider Commerce Bancshares very steady. Commerce Bancshares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0631, which signifies that the company had a 0.0631% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Commerce Bancshares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares' Mean Deviation of 1.06, risk adjusted performance of 0.0202, and Downside Deviation of 1.39 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0914%. Commerce Bancshares has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.08, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Commerce Bancshares returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Commerce Bancshares is expected to follow. Commerce Bancshares right now shows a risk of 1.45%. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares total risk alpha, expected short fall, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to decide if Commerce Bancshares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.31 |
Below average predictability
Commerce Bancshares has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commerce Bancshares time series from 26th of January 2024 to 11th of March 2024 and 11th of March 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commerce Bancshares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Commerce Bancshares price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.39 |
Commerce Bancshares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commerce Bancshares stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commerce Bancshares returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commerce Bancshares has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Commerce Bancshares regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commerce Bancshares stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commerce Bancshares stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commerce Bancshares stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Commerce Bancshares Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commerce Bancshares' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commerce Bancshares stock have on its future price. Commerce Bancshares autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commerce Bancshares autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commerce Bancshares stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commerce Bancshares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Commerce Bancshares Investors Sentiment
The influence of Commerce Bancshares' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Commerce. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Commerce Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commerce. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commerce can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commerce Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Commerce Bancshares' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Commerce Bancshares' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Commerce Bancshares' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Commerce Bancshares.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Commerce Bancshares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Commerce Bancshares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Commerce Bancshares options trading.
Pair Trading with Commerce Bancshares
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Commerce Bancshares position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Commerce Bancshares will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Commerce Stock
| 0.44 | KB | KB Financial Group Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Commerce Bancshares could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Commerce Bancshares when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Commerce Bancshares - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Commerce Bancshares to buy it.
The correlation of Commerce Bancshares is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Commerce Bancshares moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Commerce Bancshares moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Commerce Bancshares can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Commerce Bancshares Correlation, Commerce Bancshares Volatility and Commerce Bancshares Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Commerce Bancshares. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for Commerce Stock analysis
When running Commerce Bancshares' price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Commerce Bancshares technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.