Carnival Stock Market Value
| CCL Stock | USD 14.79 0.51 3.57% |
| Symbol | Carnival |
Carnival Price To Book Ratio
Is Carnival's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 0.32 | Revenue Per Share 17.868 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.22 | Return On Assets 0.0294 |
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Carnival 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carnival's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carnival.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carnival on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival over 30 days. Carnival is related to or competes with Yatra Online, Despegar Corp, Mondee Holdings, MakeMyTrip, and TripAdvisor. Carnival Corporation plc operates as a leisure travel company More
Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carnival's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carnival upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.53 |
Carnival Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carnival's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carnival's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carnival historical prices to predict the future Carnival's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.41) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.58) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.16) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carnival Backtested Returns
Carnival secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0427, which signifies that the company had a -0.0427% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Carnival exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Carnival's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), standard deviation of 2.39, and Mean Deviation of 1.76 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.7, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Carnival will likely underperform. Carnival has an expected return of -0.1%. Please make sure to confirm Carnival kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to decide if Carnival performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.90 |
Excellent predictability
Carnival has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of 0.9 indicates that approximately 90.0% of current Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.9 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.37 |
Carnival lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carnival stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carnival's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carnival returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carnival has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carnival regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carnival stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carnival stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carnival stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carnival Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carnival's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carnival stock have on its future price. Carnival autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carnival autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carnival stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carnival.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Carnival
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Carnival position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Carnival will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Carnival could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Carnival when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Carnival - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Carnival to buy it.
The correlation of Carnival is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Carnival moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Carnival moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Carnival can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Carnival Correlation, Carnival Volatility and Carnival Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Carnival. For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.Note that the Carnival information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carnival's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Carnival Stock analysis
When running Carnival's price analysis, check to measure Carnival's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carnival is operating at the current time. Most of Carnival's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carnival's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carnival's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carnival to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Carnival technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.