Carnival Backtesting

Carnival Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 68.24  0.3  0.44%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Carnival Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Carnival over given investment horizon. Check also Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Volatility as well as analyze Carnival Alpha and Beta and Carnival Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

Carnival 'What if' Analysis

September 16, 2017
 0.00 
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
October 16, 2017
 0.00 
If you would invest  0.00  in Carnival on September 16, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival over 30 days. Carnival is related to or competes with Hyatt Hotels, Expedia, Wynn Resorts, Hilton Worldwide, and Host Hotels. It offers cruises under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Seabourn brands in North A...

Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators

  

Carnival Market Premium Indicators

Carnival lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

Carnival regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

Carnival Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers Carnival not too risky given 1 month investment horizon. Carnival secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1749 which signifies that Carnival had 0.1749% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Carnival Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Carnival Downside Deviation of 1.12, Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0397 and Mean Deviation of 0.8974 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100 Carnival holds performance score of 11. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of -0.1574 which signifies that as returns on market increase, returns on owning Carnival are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, Carnival is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is extremely important to respect Carnival historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patternss. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Carnival technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.2064% will be sustainable into the future. Please makes use of Carnival Value At Risk, and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to make a quick decision on weather Carnival price patterns will revert.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.39) 

Poor reverse predictability

Carnival Corporation has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival time series from September 16, 2017 to October 1, 2017 and October 1, 2017 to October 16, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Carnival Corporation has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Carnival for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.39
Spearman Rank Test -0.42
Price Variance 1.67
Lagged Price Variance 0.31

Carnival Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

Carnival Performance vs DOW

The median price of Carnival for the period between Sat, Sep 16, 2017 and Mon, Oct 16, 2017 is 65.22 with a coefficient of variation of 2.06. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 1.35, arithmetic mean of 65.46, and mean deviation of 1.1. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
1
Carnival Corp. app broadens gambling beyond the casino floor10/16/2017