Carnival Backtesting

CCL -- USA Stock  

USD 63.53  1.13  1.81%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Carnival Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Carnival over given investment horizon. Check also Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Volatility as well as analyze Carnival Alpha and Beta and Carnival Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

Carnival 'What if' Analysis

May 25, 2018
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
June 24, 2018
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Carnival on May 25, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival over 30 days. Carnival is related to or competes with Hyatt Hotels, Expedia, Wynn Resorts, Hilton Worldwide, Host Hotels, and LAS VEGAS. Carnival Corporation operates as a leisure travel and cruise company

Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators

Maximum Drawdown5.77
Value At Risk2.65
Potential Upside1.81
  

Carnival Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.01

Carnival Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers Carnival to be not too risky. Carnival secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0253 which signifies that Carnival had -0.0253% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Macroaxis philosophy towards foreseeing risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and un-systematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Carnival Corporation exposes twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Carnival Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.01 and Mean Deviation of 1.2 to double-check risk estimate we provide. Macroaxis gives Carnival performance score of 0 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0 which signifies that the returns on MARKET and Carnival are completely uncorrelated. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Carnival historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Macroaxis philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Carnival Corporation exposes twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate its performance. Carnival has expected return of -0.041%. Please be advised to confirm Carnival Value At Risk, and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to decide if Carnival past performance will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.08) 

Very weak reverse predictability

Carnival Corporation has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival time series from May 25, 2018 to June 9, 2018 and June 9, 2018 to June 24, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of -0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Carnival Corporation has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Carnival for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.08
Spearman Rank Test -0.09
Price Variance 1.17
Lagged Price Variance 1.24

Carnival lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

Carnival regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

Carnival Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

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Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Carnival and Hyatt Hotels. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Check also Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Volatility as well as analyze Carnival Alpha and Beta and Carnival Performance. Please also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.