Carnival Backtesting

Carnival Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 69.50  0.10  0.14%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Carnival Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Carnival over given investment horizon. Check also Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Volatility as well as analyze Carnival Alpha and Beta and Carnival Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Carnival 'What if' Analysis

January 20, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
February 19, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in Carnival on January 20, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival over 30 days. Carnival is related to or competes with Hyatt Hotels, Expedia, Wynn Resorts, Hilton Worldwide, and Host Hotels. Carnival Corporation operates as a leisure travel and cruise company

Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators


Carnival Market Premium Indicators

Carnival lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Carnival regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Carnival Backtested Returns

We consider Carnival not too risky. Carnival secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0348 which signifies that Carnival had 0.0348% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Carnival Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Carnival Downside Deviation of 1.4, Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.046 and Mean Deviation of 1.1 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0566%. Carnival has performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.6978 which signifies that as returns on market increase, Carnival returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Carnival will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Carnival historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Carnival technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0566% will be sustainable into the future. Carnival right now shows a risk of 1.6247%. Please confirm Carnival Value At Risk, and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to decide if Carnival will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.17) 

Insignificant reverse predictability

Carnival Corporation has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival time series from January 20, 2018 to February 4, 2018 and February 4, 2018 to February 19, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of -0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Carnival Corporation has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Carnival for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.17
Spearman Rank Test 0.29
Price Variance 0.99
Lagged Price Variance 1.83

Carnival Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Carnival Performance vs DOW

The median price of Carnival for the period between Sat, Jan 20, 2018 and Mon, Feb 19, 2018 is 69.5 with a coefficient of variation of 2.14. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 1.49, arithmetic mean of 69.62, and mean deviation of 1.21. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
SG Americas Securities LLC Acquires 1471 Shares of Carnival ...01/26/2018