Cenovus Energy Stock Market Value
| CVE Stock | CAD 29.10 0.04 0.14% |
| Symbol | Cenovus |
Cenovus Energy Price To Book Ratio
Cenovus Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cenovus Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cenovus Energy.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Cenovus Energy on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Cenovus Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Cenovus Energy over 30 days. Cenovus Energy is related to or competes with Forsys Metals, Pinetree Capital, and Aston Bay. Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and... More
Cenovus Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cenovus Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cenovus Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3405 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.16 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.35 |
Cenovus Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cenovus Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cenovus Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cenovus Energy historical prices to predict the future Cenovus Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2596 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5259 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3761 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.4267 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.07 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cenovus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cenovus Energy Backtested Returns
Cenovus Energy appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Cenovus Energy secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.34, which signifies that the company had a 0.34% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Cenovus Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Cenovus Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2596, mean deviation of 1.0, and Downside Deviation of 1.14 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Cenovus Energy holds a performance score of 26. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.53, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Cenovus Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Cenovus Energy is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Cenovus Energy's total risk alpha, downside variance, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Cenovus Energy's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.05 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Cenovus Energy has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cenovus Energy time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cenovus Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current Cenovus Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.05 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.15 |
Cenovus Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cenovus Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cenovus Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cenovus Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cenovus Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Cenovus Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cenovus Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cenovus Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cenovus Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Cenovus Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cenovus Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cenovus Energy stock have on its future price. Cenovus Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cenovus Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cenovus Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cenovus Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cenovus Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cenovus Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cenovus Energy options trading.
Pair Trading with Cenovus Energy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cenovus Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cenovus Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Cenovus Stock
| 0.92 | ENB-PFC | Enbridge Pref 11 | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | ENB-PFU | Enbridge Pref L | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | ENS-PA | E Split Corp | PairCorr |
Moving against Cenovus Stock
| 0.88 | AAPL | Apple Inc CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | SAGE | Sage Potash Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cenovus Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cenovus Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cenovus Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cenovus Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Cenovus Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cenovus Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cenovus Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cenovus Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Cenovus Energy Correlation, Cenovus Energy Volatility and Cenovus Energy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Cenovus Energy. To learn how to invest in Cenovus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cenovus Energy guide.Note that the Cenovus Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cenovus Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Cenovus Stock analysis
When running Cenovus Energy's price analysis, check to measure Cenovus Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cenovus Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Cenovus Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cenovus Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cenovus Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cenovus Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Cenovus Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.