Dollar General Backtesting

Dollar General Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 91.76  0.53  0.58%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Dollar General Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Dollar General over given investment horizon. Additionally see Dollar General Hype Analysis, Dollar General Correlation, Dollar General Valuation, Dollar General Volatility as well as analyze Dollar General Alpha and Beta and Dollar General Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Backtest

Dollar General 'What if' Analysis

November 13, 2017
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
December 13, 2017
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Dollar General on November 13, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dollar General Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dollar General over 30 days. Dollar General is related to or competes with Macys, Home Depot, Dollar Tree, Vipshop Holdings, and Aarons. Dollar General Corporation offers consumable products including paper and cleaning solutions comprising paper towels bat...

Dollar General Upside/Downside Indicators

  

Dollar General Market Premium Indicators

Dollar General lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

Dollar General regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

Dollar General Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers Dollar General not too risky given 1 month investment horizon. Dollar General secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.3273 which denotes Dollar General had 0.3273% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Dollar General Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please utilize Dollar General Coefficient Of Variation of 372.75, Mean Deviation of 1.09 and Downside Deviation of 1.0 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100 Dollar General holds performance score of 21. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.591 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, Dollar General returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Dollar General will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is vital to follow to Dollar General historical returns, it is good to be conservative about what you can actually do with the information regarding equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Dollar General technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.455% will be sustainable into the future. Please utilizes Dollar General Jensen Alpha, Potential Upside, Accumulation Distribution, as well as the relationship between Treynor Ratio and Expected Short fall to make a quick decision on weather Dollar General price patterns will revert.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.76 

Good predictability

Dollar General Corporation has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dollar General time series from November 13, 2017 to November 28, 2017 and November 28, 2017 to December 13, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dollar General price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Dollar General price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.76
Spearman Rank Test 0.65
Price Variance 4.42
Lagged Price Variance 2.92

Dollar General Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

Dollar General Performance vs DOW

The median price of Dollar General for the period between Mon, Nov 13, 2017 and Wed, Dec 13, 2017 is 87.73 with a coefficient of variation of 3.79. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 3.33, arithmetic mean of 87.86, and mean deviation of 2.68. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
1
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