Americafirst Defensive Growth Fund Market Value
| DGQUX Fund | USD 7.18 0.01 0.14% |
| Symbol | Americafirst |
Americafirst Defensive 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Americafirst Defensive's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Americafirst Defensive.
| 05/24/2023 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Americafirst Defensive on May 24, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Americafirst Defensive Growth or generate 0.0% return on investment in Americafirst Defensive over 330 days. Americafirst Defensive is related to or competes with Qs International, Materials Portfolio, JPMorgan Chase, Procter Gamble, Microsoft, and American Express. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, a range of approximately 70... More
Americafirst Defensive Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Americafirst Defensive's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Americafirst Defensive Growth upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.22) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8119 |
Americafirst Defensive Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Americafirst Defensive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Americafirst Defensive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Americafirst Defensive historical prices to predict the future Americafirst Defensive's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.11) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Americafirst Defensive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Americafirst Defensive Backtested Returns
Americafirst Defensive secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which signifies that the fund had a -0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Americafirst Defensive Growth exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Americafirst Defensive's risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Mean Deviation of 0.3996 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.61, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Americafirst Defensive's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Americafirst Defensive is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.27 |
Weak reverse predictability
Americafirst Defensive Growth has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Americafirst Defensive time series from 24th of May 2023 to 5th of November 2023 and 5th of November 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Americafirst Defensive price movement. The serial correlation of -0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Americafirst Defensive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
Americafirst Defensive lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Americafirst Defensive mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Americafirst Defensive's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Americafirst Defensive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Americafirst Defensive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Defensive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Americafirst Defensive mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Americafirst Defensive mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Americafirst Defensive mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Defensive Lagged Returns
When evaluating Americafirst Defensive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Americafirst Defensive mutual fund have on its future price. Americafirst Defensive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Americafirst Defensive autocorrelation shows the relationship between Americafirst Defensive mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Americafirst Defensive Growth.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Americafirst Defensive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Americafirst Defensive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Americafirst Defensive options trading.
Pair Trading with Americafirst Defensive
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Americafirst Defensive position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Americafirst Defensive will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Americafirst Mutual Fund
| 0.57 | QLERX | Aqr Long Short | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | FSMMX | Fs Multi Strategy | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Americafirst Defensive could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Americafirst Defensive when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Americafirst Defensive - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Americafirst Defensive Growth to buy it.
The correlation of Americafirst Defensive is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Americafirst Defensive moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Americafirst Defensive moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Americafirst Defensive can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Americafirst Defensive Correlation, Americafirst Defensive Volatility and Americafirst Defensive Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Americafirst Defensive. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Americafirst Defensive technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.