Dreyfus Natural Resources Fund Market Value
| DLDYX Fund | USD 50.67 0.17 0.34% |
| Symbol | Dreyfus |
Dreyfus Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Dreyfus Natural's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Dreyfus Natural.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Dreyfus Natural on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dreyfus Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dreyfus Natural over 30 days. Dreyfus Natural is related to or competes with T Rowe, Gmo Resources, and Materials Portfolio. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in stocks ... More
Dreyfus Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Dreyfus Natural's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Dreyfus Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9776 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1356 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.52 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.77 |
Dreyfus Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Dreyfus Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Dreyfus Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Dreyfus Natural historical prices to predict the future Dreyfus Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1502 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.14 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0841 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1325 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2448 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dreyfus Natural Resources Backtested Returns
We consider Dreyfus Natural very steady. Dreyfus Natural Resources secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which denotes the fund had a 0.2% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Dreyfus Natural Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Dreyfus Natural's Mean Deviation of 0.7422, downside deviation of 0.9776, and Semi Deviation of 0.6779 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.88, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Dreyfus Natural returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Dreyfus Natural is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.94 |
Near perfect reversele predictability
Dreyfus Natural Resources has near perfect reversele predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dreyfus Natural time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dreyfus Natural Resources price movement. The serial correlation of -0.94 indicates that approximately 94.0% of current Dreyfus Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.94 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.78 |
Dreyfus Natural Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Dreyfus Natural mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Dreyfus Natural's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Dreyfus Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Dreyfus Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Dreyfus Natural mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Dreyfus Natural mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Dreyfus Natural mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Dreyfus Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Dreyfus Natural mutual fund have on its future price. Dreyfus Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Dreyfus Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Dreyfus Natural mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Dreyfus Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Dreyfus Natural
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dreyfus Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dreyfus Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Dreyfus Mutual Fund
| 0.72 | DIEYX | Dreyfus International | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dreyfus Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dreyfus Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dreyfus Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dreyfus Natural Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Dreyfus Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dreyfus Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dreyfus Natural Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dreyfus Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Dreyfus Natural Correlation, Dreyfus Natural Volatility and Dreyfus Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Dreyfus Natural. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Dreyfus Natural technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.