Dollar Tree Backtesting

DLTR -- USA Stock  

USD 84.28  0.93  1.09%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Dollar Tree and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Dollar Tree over given investment horizon. Additionally see Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Volatility as well as analyze Dollar Tree Alpha and Beta and Dollar Tree Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

Dollar Tree 'What if' Analysis

August 21, 2018
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
September 20, 2018
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Dollar Tree on August 21, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dollar Tree or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dollar Tree over 30 days. Dollar Tree is related to or competes with Dollar General, Big Lots, Freds, Ollies Bargain, PriceSmart, and Burlington Stores. Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores in the United States and Canada

Dollar Tree Upside/Downside Indicators

Information Ratio0.14
Maximum Drawdown16.7
Value At Risk1.51
Potential Upside2.02
  

Dollar Tree Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.035012
Jensen Alpha0.48
Total Risk Alpha1.24
Treynor Ratio0.51

Dollar Tree Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers Dollar Tree to be not too volatile. Dollar Tree secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1201 which denotes Dollar Tree had -0.1201% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Macroaxis philosophy towards predicting risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and un-systematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Dollar Tree exposes twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Dollar Tree Coefficient Of Variation of 899.09 and Mean Deviation of 1.64 to check risk estimate we provide. Macroaxis gives Dollar Tree performance score of 0 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.7917 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, Dollar Tree returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Dollar Tree will be expected to be smaller as well.. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Dollar Tree historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Macroaxis philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Dollar Tree exposes twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate its performance. Dollar Tree has expected return of -0.4264%. Please be advised to confirm Dollar Tree Downside Deviation, Treynor Ratio as well as the relationship between Treynor Ratio and Expected Short fall to decide if Dollar Tree past performance will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.58) 

Good reverse predictability

Dollar Tree has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dollar Tree time series from August 21, 2018 to September 5, 2018 and September 5, 2018 to September 20, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dollar Tree price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Dollar Tree price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Dollar Tree has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Dollar Tree for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.58
Spearman Rank Test-0.62
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.15

Dollar Tree lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

Dollar Tree regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

Dollar Tree Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

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Money Flow Index

Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
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Dollar Tree Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dollar Tree and Dollar General. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Additionally see Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Volatility as well as analyze Dollar Tree Alpha and Beta and Dollar Tree Performance. Please also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
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