Dollar Tree Backtesting

Dollar Tree Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 91.47  0.9  0.97%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Dollar Tree Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Dollar Tree over given investment horizon. Additionally see Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Volatility as well as analyze Dollar Tree Alpha and Beta and Dollar Tree Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Dollar Tree 'What if' Analysis

September 21, 2017
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
October 21, 2017
If you would invest  0.00  in Dollar Tree on September 21, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dollar Tree Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dollar Tree over 30 days. Dollar Tree is related to or competes with Macys, Dollar General, Home Depot, Vipshop Holdings, and Aarons. Dollar Tree Inc operates in two segments Dollar Tree and Family Dollar

Dollar Tree Upside/Downside Indicators


Dollar Tree Market Premium Indicators

Dollar Tree Inc lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Dollar Tree regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Dollar Tree Inc Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers Dollar Tree not too risky given 1 month investment horizon. Dollar Tree Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.5431 which denotes Dollar Tree Inc had 0.5431% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty technical indicators for Dollar Tree Inc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please utilize Dollar Tree Inc Standard Deviation of 0.8901, Mean Deviation of 0.6806 and Coefficient Of Variation of 184.13 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100 Dollar Tree holds performance score of 36. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0138 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, Dollar Tree returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Dollar Tree will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is vital to follow to Dollar Tree Inc historical returns, it is good to be conservative about what you can actually do with the information regarding equity current trending patternss. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Dollar Tree Inc technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.4834% will be sustainable into the future. Please utilizes Dollar Tree Inc Coefficient Of Variation, Maximum Drawdown as well as the relationship between Maximum Drawdown and Skewness to make a quick decision on weather Dollar Tree price patterns will revert.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.71 

Good predictability

Dollar Tree Inc has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dollar Tree time series from September 21, 2017 to October 6, 2017 and October 6, 2017 to October 21, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dollar Tree Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Dollar Tree price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.71
Spearman Rank Test 0.82
Price Variance 1.46
Lagged Price Variance 3.02

Dollar Tree Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Dollar Tree Performance vs DOW

The median price of Dollar Tree for the period between Thu, Sep 21, 2017 and Sat, Oct 21, 2017 is 89.15 with a coefficient of variation of 3.26. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 2.89, arithmetic mean of 88.51, and mean deviation of 2.51. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
A Side-by-side Analysis of Dollar Tree, Inc. and Dollar Gene...10/20/2017