United States Backtesting

United States Short Oil -- USA Etf  

USD 53.17  0.70  1.30%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of United States Short Oil and determine expected loss or profit from investing in United States over given investment horizon. Additionally see United States Hype Analysis, United States Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, United States Volatility as well as analyze United States Alpha and Beta and United States Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

United States 'What if' Analysis

January 24, 2018
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
February 23, 2018
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in United States on January 24, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United States Short Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in United States over 30 days. United States is related to or competes with Diamond Hill, AllianceBernstein, Associated Capital, Arlington Asset, and Blackstone Group.

United States Upside/Downside Indicators

  

United States Market Premium Indicators

United States Short lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

United States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

United States Short Backtested Returns

We consider United States not too risky. United States Short owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.091 which indicates United States Short had 0.091% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for United States Short Oil which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please validate United States Semi Deviation of 1.44, Coefficient Of Variation of 1356.87 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1284 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.146%. The entity has beta of -0.1221 which indicates as returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, United States is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is extremely important to respect United States Short current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any etf is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting United States Short technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.146% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.71) 

Almost perfect reverse predictability

United States Short Oil has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United States time series from January 24, 2018 to February 8, 2018 and February 8, 2018 to February 23, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United States Short price movement. The serial correlation of -0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current United States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that United States Short Oil has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of United States for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.71
Spearman Rank Test -0.42
Price Variance 1.85
Lagged Price Variance 1.11

United States Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

United States Performance vs DOW

The median price of United States for the period between Wed, Jan 24, 2018 and Fri, Feb 23, 2018 is 53.87 with a coefficient of variation of 3.63. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 1.96, arithmetic mean of 54.02, and mean deviation of 1.68. The Etf received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
1
Positive Momentum Gaining Traction For United States 3X Shor...02/20/2018