Ecopetrol S Backtesting

Ecopetrol S A -- USA Stock  

USD 10.01  0.07  0.7%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Ecopetrol S A and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Ecopetrol S over given investment horizon. Additionally see Ecopetrol S Hype Analysis, Ecopetrol S Correlation, Ecopetrol S Valuation, Ecopetrol S Volatility as well as analyze Ecopetrol S Alpha and Beta and Ecopetrol S Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Backtest

Ecopetrol S 'What if' Analysis

September 22, 2017
 0.00 
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 30 days
October 22, 2017
 0.00 
If you would invest  0.00  in Ecopetrol S on September 22, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ecopetrol S A or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ecopetrol S over 30 days. Ecopetrol S is related to or competes with Antero Resources, BP plc, Delek US, Diamond Offshore, Franks International. It operates through the Exploration and Production Transportation and Logistics Refining Petrochemicals and Biofuels seg...

Ecopetrol S Upside/Downside Indicators

  

Ecopetrol S Market Premium Indicators

Ecopetrol S A lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

Ecopetrol S regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

Ecopetrol S A Backtested Returns

We consider Ecopetrol S not too volatile. Ecopetrol S A secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2762 which denotes Ecopetrol S A had 0.2762% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty technical indicators for Ecopetrol S A which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Ecopetrol S A Standard Deviation of 0.692, Mean Deviation of 0.547 and Coefficient Of Variation of 317.6 to check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1931%. Ecopetrol S has performance score of 18 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.3665 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, Ecopetrol S returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Ecopetrol S will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Ecopetrol S A historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patternss. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Ecopetrol S A technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1931% will be sustainable into the future. Ecopetrol S A right now shows a risk of 0.699%. Please confirm Ecopetrol S A Value At Risk, Expected Short fall and the relationship between Treynor Ratio and Downside Variance to decide if Ecopetrol S A will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.14) 

Insignificant reverse predictability

Ecopetrol S A has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ecopetrol S time series from September 22, 2017 to October 7, 2017 and October 7, 2017 to October 22, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ecopetrol S A price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current Ecopetrol S price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Ecopetrol S A has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Ecopetrol S for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.14
Spearman Rank Test -0.18
Price Variance 0.05
Average Price 9.75

Ecopetrol S Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

Ecopetrol S Performance vs DOW

The median price of Ecopetrol S for the period between Fri, Sep 22, 2017 and Sun, Oct 22, 2017 is 9.55 with a coefficient of variation of 1.98. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.19, arithmetic mean of 9.63, and mean deviation of 0.16. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
1
Ecopetrol SA Short Interest Increased By 1510/19/2017