Exxon Mobil (Brazil) Market Value
| EXXO34 Stock | BRL 77.70 0.69 0.90% |
| Symbol | Exxon |
Exxon Mobil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Exxon Mobil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Exxon Mobil.
| 07/28/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Exxon Mobil on July 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Exxon Mobil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Exxon Mobil over 270 days. Exxon Mobil is related to or competes with Metalrgica Riosulense, Taiwan Semiconductor, STMicroelectronics, Metalfrio Solutions, United Airlines, and Autohome. Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States, CanadaOther Americas, ... More
Exxon Mobil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Exxon Mobil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Exxon Mobil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2811 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.24 |
Exxon Mobil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Exxon Mobil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Exxon Mobil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Exxon Mobil historical prices to predict the future Exxon Mobil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2223 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4023 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2562 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2949 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (5.95) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exxon Mobil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exxon Mobil Backtested Returns
Exxon Mobil appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Exxon Mobil secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.35, which denotes the company had a 0.35% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Exxon Mobil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Exxon Mobil's Coefficient Of Variation of 281.17, downside deviation of 1.09, and Mean Deviation of 0.9338 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Exxon Mobil holds a performance score of 27. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0668, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Exxon Mobil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Exxon Mobil is likely to outperform the market. Please check Exxon Mobil's semi variance, accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Exxon Mobil's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.54 |
Good reverse predictability
Exxon Mobil has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Exxon Mobil time series from 28th of July 2023 to 10th of December 2023 and 10th of December 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Exxon Mobil price movement. The serial correlation of -0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Exxon Mobil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 34.06 |
Exxon Mobil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Exxon Mobil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Exxon Mobil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Exxon Mobil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Exxon Mobil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Exxon Mobil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Exxon Mobil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Exxon Mobil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Exxon Mobil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Exxon Mobil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Exxon Mobil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Exxon Mobil stock have on its future price. Exxon Mobil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Exxon Mobil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Exxon Mobil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Exxon Mobil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Exxon Mobil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Exxon Mobil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Exxon Mobil options trading.
Pair Trading with Exxon Mobil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Exxon Mobil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Exxon Mobil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Exxon Stock
| 0.94 | CHVX34 | Chevron | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | B1PP34 | BP plc | PairCorr |
Moving against Exxon Stock
| 0.87 | BIIB34 | Biogen Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | OSXB3 | OSX Brasil SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Exxon Mobil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Exxon Mobil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Exxon Mobil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Exxon Mobil to buy it.
The correlation of Exxon Mobil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Exxon Mobil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Exxon Mobil moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Exxon Mobil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Exxon Mobil Correlation, Exxon Mobil Volatility and Exxon Mobil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Exxon Mobil. Note that the Exxon Mobil information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Exxon Mobil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Exxon Stock analysis
When running Exxon Mobil's price analysis, check to measure Exxon Mobil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exxon Mobil is operating at the current time. Most of Exxon Mobil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exxon Mobil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exxon Mobil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exxon Mobil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Exxon Mobil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.