Franklin Gold Precious Fund Market Value
| FGADX Fund | USD 19.94 0.29 1.48% |
| Symbol | Franklin |
Franklin Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Franklin Gold's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Franklin Gold.
| 04/29/2022 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Franklin Gold on April 29, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Franklin Gold Precious or generate 0.0% return on investment in Franklin Gold over 720 days. Franklin Gold is related to or competes with First Eagle, HUMANA, Thrivent High, Via Renewables, T Rowe, and FT Cboe. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in securities of gold and precious metals operation comp... More
Franklin Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Franklin Gold's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Franklin Gold Precious upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1096 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.94 |
Franklin Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Franklin Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Franklin Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Franklin Gold historical prices to predict the future Franklin Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0959 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1623 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1092 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1177 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1514 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Franklin Gold Precious Backtested Returns
Franklin Gold appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Franklin Gold Precious secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which denotes the fund had a 0.2% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Franklin Gold Precious, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize Franklin Gold's Semi Deviation of 1.38, mean deviation of 1.38, and Downside Deviation of 1.59 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.53, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Franklin Gold will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Franklin Gold Precious has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Franklin Gold time series from 29th of April 2022 to 24th of April 2023 and 24th of April 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Franklin Gold Precious price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Franklin Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.72 |
Franklin Gold Precious lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Franklin Gold mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Franklin Gold's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Franklin Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Franklin Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Franklin Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Franklin Gold mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Franklin Gold mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Franklin Gold mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Franklin Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Franklin Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Franklin Gold mutual fund have on its future price. Franklin Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Franklin Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Franklin Gold mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Franklin Gold Precious.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Franklin Gold Correlation, Franklin Gold Volatility and Franklin Gold Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Franklin Gold. Note that the Franklin Gold Precious information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Franklin Gold's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Franklin Gold technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.