Firstgroup Plc Adr Stock Market Value
| FGROY Stock | USD 2.10 0.05 2.44% |
| Symbol | FirstGroup |
FirstGroup PLC 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FirstGroup PLC's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FirstGroup PLC.
| 05/06/2022 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FirstGroup PLC on May 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FirstGroup PLC ADR or generate 0.0% return on investment in FirstGroup PLC over 720 days. FirstGroup PLC is related to or competes with LB Foster, Canadian National, Greenbrier Companies, Trinity Industries, Freightcar America, Westinghouse Air, and CSX. FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States More
FirstGroup PLC Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FirstGroup PLC's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FirstGroup PLC ADR upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 34.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.24 |
FirstGroup PLC Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FirstGroup PLC's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FirstGroup PLC's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FirstGroup PLC historical prices to predict the future FirstGroup PLC's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0022 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0051 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.60) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0774 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FirstGroup PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FirstGroup PLC ADR Backtested Returns
FirstGroup PLC ADR secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0103, which denotes the company had a -0.0103% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. FirstGroup PLC ADR exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm FirstGroup PLC's Standard Deviation of 3.98, mean deviation of 1.38, and Variance of 15.88 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.65, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning FirstGroup PLC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, FirstGroup PLC is likely to outperform the market. FirstGroup PLC ADR has an expected return of -0.0425%. Please make sure to confirm FirstGroup PLC ADR total risk alpha, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and relative strength index , to decide if FirstGroup PLC ADR performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
FirstGroup PLC ADR has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FirstGroup PLC time series from 6th of May 2022 to 1st of May 2023 and 1st of May 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FirstGroup PLC ADR price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current FirstGroup PLC price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
FirstGroup PLC ADR lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FirstGroup PLC pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FirstGroup PLC's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FirstGroup PLC returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FirstGroup PLC has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup PLC regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FirstGroup PLC pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FirstGroup PLC pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FirstGroup PLC pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup PLC Lagged Returns
When evaluating FirstGroup PLC's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FirstGroup PLC pink sheet have on its future price. FirstGroup PLC autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FirstGroup PLC autocorrelation shows the relationship between FirstGroup PLC pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FirstGroup PLC ADR.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FirstGroup PLC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FirstGroup PLC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FirstGroup PLC options trading.
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Complementary Tools for FirstGroup Pink Sheet analysis
When running FirstGroup PLC's price analysis, check to measure FirstGroup PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FirstGroup PLC is operating at the current time. Most of FirstGroup PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FirstGroup PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FirstGroup PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FirstGroup PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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FirstGroup PLC technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.