First Mid Illinois Stock Market Value
| FMBH Stock | USD 31.64 0.51 1.64% |
| Symbol | First |
Is First Mid's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Mid. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Mid listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of First Mid Illinois is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Mid's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Mid's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Mid's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Mid's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Mid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Mid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Mid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Mid 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Mid's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Mid.
| 01/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Mid on January 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Mid Illinois or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Mid over 90 days. First Mid is related to or competes with Finward Bancorp, Great Southern, Franklin Financial, Community West, HMN Financial, First Northwest, and First Financial. First Mid Bancshares, Inc., a financial holding company, provides community banking products and services to commercial,... More
First Mid Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Mid's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Mid Illinois upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.91) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.51 |
First Mid Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Mid's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Mid's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Mid historical prices to predict the future First Mid's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.49) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Mid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Mid Illinois Backtested Returns
First Mid Illinois secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0333, which denotes the company had a -0.0333% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Mid Illinois exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Mid's Variance of 3.81, standard deviation of 1.95, and Mean Deviation of 1.37 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.15, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Mid's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Mid is expected to be smaller as well. First Mid Illinois has an expected return of -0.0651%. Please make sure to confirm First Mid Illinois accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and day median price , to decide if First Mid Illinois performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.00 |
No correlation between past and present
First Mid Illinois has no correlation between past and present. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Mid time series from 25th of January 2024 to 10th of March 2024 and 10th of March 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Mid Illinois price movement. The serial correlation of 0.0 indicates that just 0.0% of current First Mid price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.0 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.87 |
First Mid Illinois lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Mid stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Mid's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Mid returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Mid has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Mid regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Mid stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Mid stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Mid stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Mid Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Mid's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Mid stock have on its future price. First Mid autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Mid autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Mid stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Mid Illinois.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running First Mid's price analysis, check to measure First Mid's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Mid is operating at the current time. Most of First Mid's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Mid's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Mid's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Mid to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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First Mid technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.