Fidelity Natural Resources Fund Market Value
| FNARX Fund | USD 47.78 0.08 0.17% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Natural's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Natural.
| 05/06/2022 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Natural on May 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Natural over 720 days. Fidelity Natural is related to or competes with Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Puritan, Fidelity Puritan, Fidelity Pennsylvania, Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Freedom, and Aggressive Growth. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of assets in securities of companies principally engaged in owning or deve... More
Fidelity Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Natural's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8564 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2325 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.76 |
Fidelity Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Natural historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2098 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2249 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1735 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2409 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3734 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Natural Res Backtested Returns
Fidelity Natural appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Fidelity Natural Res secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.28, which denotes the fund had a 0.28% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Fidelity Natural Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize Fidelity Natural's Mean Deviation of 0.7034, downside deviation of 0.8564, and Coefficient Of Variation of 301.72 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.76, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Fidelity Natural's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fidelity Natural is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.18 |
Very weak predictability
Fidelity Natural Resources has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Natural time series from 6th of May 2022 to 1st of May 2023 and 1st of May 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Natural Res price movement. The serial correlation of 0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current Fidelity Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.18 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.87 |
Fidelity Natural Res lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Natural mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Natural's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Natural mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Natural mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Natural mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Natural mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Natural mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity Natural in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity Natural's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity Natural options trading.
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Fidelity Natural technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.