First Merchants Stock Market Value
| FRME Stock | USD 32.92 0.44 1.35% |
| Symbol | First |
First Merchants Price To Book Ratio
Is First Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 1.34 | Earnings Share 3.73 | Revenue Per Share 10.918 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Merchants 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Merchants' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Merchants.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Merchants on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Merchants or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Merchants over 30 days. First Merchants is related to or competes with Home Bancorp, and Lake Shore. First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides community b... More
First Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Merchants' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Merchants upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.72 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.69 |
First Merchants Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Merchants historical prices to predict the future First Merchants' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Merchants Backtested Returns
First Merchants secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0734, which denotes the company had a -0.0734% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Merchants exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Merchants' Mean Deviation of 1.35, standard deviation of 1.83, and Variance of 3.33 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.52, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Merchants will likely underperform. First Merchants has an expected return of -0.13%. Please make sure to confirm First Merchants skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and price action indicator , to decide if First Merchants performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
First Merchants has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Merchants time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Merchants price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current First Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.37 |
First Merchants lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Merchants stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Merchants' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Merchants returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Merchants has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Merchants regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Merchants stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Merchants stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Merchants stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Merchants Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Merchants' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Merchants stock have on its future price. First Merchants autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Merchants autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Merchants stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Merchants.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
First Merchants Investors Sentiment
The influence of First Merchants' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in First. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to First Merchants' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Merchants. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
First Merchants' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for First Merchants' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average First Merchants' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on First Merchants.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Merchants in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Merchants' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Merchants options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out First Merchants Correlation, First Merchants Volatility and First Merchants Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Merchants. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
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When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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First Merchants technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.