Gold Portfolio Gold Fund Market Value
| FSAGX Fund | USD 23.59 0.05 0.21% |
| Symbol | Gold |
Gold Portfolio 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gold Portfolio's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gold Portfolio.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gold Portfolio on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gold Portfolio Gold or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gold Portfolio over 30 days. Gold Portfolio is related to or competes with First Eagle, and . The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of assets in securities of companies principally engaged in gold-related a... More
Gold Portfolio Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gold Portfolio's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gold Portfolio Gold upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0961 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.27 |
Gold Portfolio Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gold Portfolio's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gold Portfolio's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gold Portfolio historical prices to predict the future Gold Portfolio's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0996 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.139 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0124 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1042 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1852 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gold Portfolio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gold Portfolio Gold Backtested Returns
Gold Portfolio appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Gold Portfolio Gold holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.14, which attests that the entity had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Gold Portfolio Gold, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize Gold Portfolio's Downside Deviation of 1.65, risk adjusted performance of 0.0996, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1952 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.39, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Gold Portfolio will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Gold Portfolio Gold has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gold Portfolio time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gold Portfolio Gold price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Gold Portfolio price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Gold Portfolio Gold lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gold Portfolio mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gold Portfolio's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gold Portfolio returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gold Portfolio has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gold Portfolio regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gold Portfolio mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gold Portfolio mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gold Portfolio mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gold Portfolio Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gold Portfolio's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gold Portfolio mutual fund have on its future price. Gold Portfolio autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gold Portfolio autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gold Portfolio mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gold Portfolio Gold.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gold Portfolio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gold Portfolio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gold Portfolio options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Gold Portfolio Correlation, Gold Portfolio Volatility and Gold Portfolio Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Gold Portfolio. Note that the Gold Portfolio Gold information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Gold Portfolio's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Gold Portfolio technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.