Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Etf Market Value
| GBTC Etf | USD 56.90 2.31 3.90% |
| Symbol | Grayscale |
The market value of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grayscale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grayscale Bitcoin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grayscale Bitcoin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grayscale Bitcoin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grayscale Bitcoin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grayscale Bitcoin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grayscale Bitcoin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grayscale Bitcoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Grayscale Bitcoin 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Grayscale Bitcoin's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Grayscale Bitcoin.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Grayscale Bitcoin on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust or generate 0.0% return on investment in Grayscale Bitcoin over 30 days. Grayscale Bitcoin is related to or competes with Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital, Coinbase Global, and MicroStrategy Incorporated. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is an exchange traded fund launched and managed by Grayscale Investments, LLC More
Grayscale Bitcoin Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Grayscale Bitcoin's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Grayscale Bitcoin Trust upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2001 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.32) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.67 |
Grayscale Bitcoin Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Grayscale Bitcoin's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Grayscale Bitcoin's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Grayscale Bitcoin historical prices to predict the future Grayscale Bitcoin's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1493 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7909 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3178 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2273 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.39 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grayscale Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Backtested Returns
Grayscale Bitcoin appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.22, which attests that the entity had a 0.22% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By evaluating Grayscale Bitcoin's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.81% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Grayscale Bitcoin's risk adjusted performance of 0.1493, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.4 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The etf retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.34, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Grayscale Bitcoin's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Grayscale Bitcoin is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.39 |
Below average predictability
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Grayscale Bitcoin time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust price movement. The serial correlation of 0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Grayscale Bitcoin price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.8 |
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Grayscale Bitcoin etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Grayscale Bitcoin's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Grayscale Bitcoin returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Grayscale Bitcoin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Grayscale Bitcoin regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Grayscale Bitcoin etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Grayscale Bitcoin etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Grayscale Bitcoin etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Grayscale Bitcoin Lagged Returns
When evaluating Grayscale Bitcoin's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Grayscale Bitcoin etf have on its future price. Grayscale Bitcoin autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Grayscale Bitcoin autocorrelation shows the relationship between Grayscale Bitcoin etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Grayscale Bitcoin technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.