Guidepath Tactical Allocation Fund Market Value
| GPTUX Fund | USD 12.34 0.06 0.48% |
| Symbol | Guidepath |
Guidepath Tactical 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guidepath Tactical's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guidepath Tactical.
| 03/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guidepath Tactical on March 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guidepath Tactical Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guidepath Tactical over 30 days. Guidepath Tactical is related to or competes with T Rowe, Rbc Microcap, Scharf Global, and T Rowe. In seeking to maximize total return, under normal circumstances, the funds assets are allocated into a diversified portfolio consisting of domestic and international equity securities and Global Depositary Receipts , domestic and international fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds , mutual funds and cash equivalent money market securities. More
Guidepath Tactical Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guidepath Tactical's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guidepath Tactical Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8349 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0097 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.24 |
Guidepath Tactical Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guidepath Tactical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guidepath Tactical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guidepath Tactical historical prices to predict the future Guidepath Tactical's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0515 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.005 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0094 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0502 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidepath Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidepath Tactical Backtested Returns
We consider Guidepath Tactical very steady. Guidepath Tactical holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0781, which attests that the entity had a 0.0781% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Guidepath Tactical, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guidepath Tactical's Downside Deviation of 0.8349, risk adjusted performance of 0.0515, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0602 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0636%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.06, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Guidepath Tactical returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Guidepath Tactical is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.17 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Guidepath Tactical Allocation has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guidepath Tactical time series from 19th of March 2024 to 3rd of April 2024 and 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guidepath Tactical price movement. The serial correlation of -0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Guidepath Tactical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Guidepath Tactical lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guidepath Tactical mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guidepath Tactical's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guidepath Tactical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guidepath Tactical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guidepath Tactical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guidepath Tactical mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guidepath Tactical mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guidepath Tactical mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guidepath Tactical Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guidepath Tactical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guidepath Tactical mutual fund have on its future price. Guidepath Tactical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guidepath Tactical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guidepath Tactical mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guidepath Tactical Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Guidepath Tactical technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.