Hussman Strategic Total Fund Market Value
| HSTRX Fund | USD 13.95 0.02 0.14% |
| Symbol | Hussman |
Hussman Strategic 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hussman Strategic's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hussman Strategic.
| 03/18/2024 |
| 04/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hussman Strategic on March 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hussman Strategic Total or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hussman Strategic over 30 days. Hussman Strategic is related to or competes with Legg Mason, Lord Abbett, Tax-managed, Huber Capital, Aqr Diversified, and Adams Diversified. The fund pursues its investment objective by investing its assets primarily in fixed-income securities, such as U.S More
Hussman Strategic Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hussman Strategic's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hussman Strategic Total upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.4282 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.6731 |
Hussman Strategic Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hussman Strategic's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hussman Strategic's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hussman Strategic historical prices to predict the future Hussman Strategic's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.066 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0211 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0062 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1232 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hussman Strategic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hussman Strategic Total Backtested Returns
We consider Hussman Strategic very steady. Hussman Strategic Total holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.12, which attests that the entity had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Hussman Strategic Total, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Hussman Strategic's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1332, risk adjusted performance of 0.066, and Downside Deviation of 0.4282 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0434%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.27, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Hussman Strategic's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Hussman Strategic is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.35 |
Poor reverse predictability
Hussman Strategic Total has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hussman Strategic time series from 18th of March 2024 to 2nd of April 2024 and 2nd of April 2024 to 17th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hussman Strategic Total price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Hussman Strategic price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Hussman Strategic Total lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hussman Strategic mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hussman Strategic's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hussman Strategic returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hussman Strategic has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hussman Strategic regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hussman Strategic mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hussman Strategic mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hussman Strategic mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hussman Strategic Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hussman Strategic's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hussman Strategic mutual fund have on its future price. Hussman Strategic autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hussman Strategic autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hussman Strategic mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hussman Strategic Total.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Hussman Strategic technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.