Rational Defensive Growth Fund Market Value

HSUCX Fund  USD 27.15  0.25  0.91%   
Rational Defensive's market value is the price at which a share of Rational Defensive trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Rational Defensive Growth investors about its performance. Rational Defensive is trading at 27.15 as of the 25th of April 2024; that is -0.91 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 27.4.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Rational Defensive Growth and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Rational Defensive over a given investment horizon. Check out Rational Defensive Correlation, Rational Defensive Volatility and Rational Defensive Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Rational Defensive.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Rational Defensive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rational Defensive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rational Defensive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Rational Defensive 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Rational Defensive's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Rational Defensive.
0.00
03/26/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
04/25/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Rational Defensive on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Rational Defensive Growth or generate 0.0% return on investment in Rational Defensive over 30 days. Rational Defensive is related to or competes with Amana Income, Amana Income, Amana Developing, and Amana Developing. The fund pursues its investment objective by investing primarily in the stocks of companies with the 25 to 50 most attra... More

Rational Defensive Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Rational Defensive's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Rational Defensive Growth upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Rational Defensive Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Rational Defensive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Rational Defensive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Rational Defensive historical prices to predict the future Rational Defensive's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rational Defensive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.3427.4028.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.4527.5128.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.6726.7327.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
26.9528.2529.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rational Defensive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rational Defensive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rational Defensive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rational Defensive Growth.

Rational Defensive Growth Backtested Returns

We consider Rational Defensive very steady. Rational Defensive Growth maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0237, which implies the entity had a 0.0237% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Rational Defensive Growth, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Rational Defensive's Semi Deviation of 0.9178, coefficient of variation of 1515.15, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0452 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0253%. The fund holds a Beta of 1.2, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Rational Defensive will likely underperform.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.33  

Below average predictability

Rational Defensive Growth has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Rational Defensive time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Rational Defensive Growth price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Rational Defensive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.33
Spearman Rank Test0.18
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.37

Rational Defensive Growth lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Rational Defensive mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Rational Defensive's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Rational Defensive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Rational Defensive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Rational Defensive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Rational Defensive mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Rational Defensive mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Rational Defensive mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Rational Defensive Lagged Returns

When evaluating Rational Defensive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Rational Defensive mutual fund have on its future price. Rational Defensive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Rational Defensive autocorrelation shows the relationship between Rational Defensive mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Rational Defensive Growth.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Rational Defensive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Rational Defensive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Rational Defensive options trading.

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Check out Rational Defensive Correlation, Rational Defensive Volatility and Rational Defensive Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Rational Defensive.
Note that the Rational Defensive Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Rational Defensive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Rational Defensive technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Rational Defensive technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Rational Defensive trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...