ProShares UltraShort Backtesting

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas -- USA Etf  

USD 46.41  0.40  0.86%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas and determine expected loss or profit from investing in ProShares UltraShort over given investment horizon. Please see also ProShares UltraShort Hype Analysis, ProShares UltraShort Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, ProShares UltraShort Volatility as well as analyze ProShares UltraShort Alpha and Beta and ProShares UltraShort Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

ProShares UltraShort 'What if' Analysis

January 20, 2018
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
February 19, 2018
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in ProShares UltraShort on January 20, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in ProShares UltraShort over 30 days. ProShares UltraShort is related to or competes with ProShares Ultra, WisdomTree EmMkts, Barclays ETN, BlackRock Asset, Columbia EM, and WisdomTree Global.

ProShares UltraShort Upside/Downside Indicators

  

ProShares UltraShort Market Premium Indicators

ProShares UltraShort lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

ProShares UltraShort regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

ProShares UltraShort Backtested Returns

ProShares UltraShort is not very risky given 1 month investment horizon. ProShares UltraShort maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e. Efficiency) of 0.2408 which implies ProShares UltraShort had 0.2408% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards forecasting risk of a etf is to use both market data as well as company specific technical data. We found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.087% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use ProShares UltraShort Coefficient Of Variation of 373.68, Semi Deviation of 2.79 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.4628 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The etf holds Beta of -0.4512 which implies as returns on market increase, returns on owning ProShares UltraShort are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, ProShares UltraShort is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is vital to follow to ProShares UltraShort current trending patterns, it is good to be conservative about what you can actually do with the information regarding equity existing price patterns. Macroaxis philosophy towards forecasting future performance of any etf is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if ProShares UltraShort expected return of 1.087 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.08 

Virtually no predictability

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ProShares UltraShort time series from January 20, 2018 to February 4, 2018 and February 4, 2018 to February 19, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ProShares UltraShort price movement. The serial correlation of 0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current ProShares UltraShort price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.08
Spearman Rank Test 0.05
Price Variance 3.27
Lagged Price Variance 9.19

ProShares UltraShort Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

ProShares UltraShort Performance vs DOW

The median price of ProShares UltraShort for the period between Sat, Jan 20, 2018 and Mon, Feb 19, 2018 is 38.76 with a coefficient of variation of 13.13. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 5.21, arithmetic mean of 39.66, and mean deviation of 4.6. The Etf received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
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