Lonza Group (Switzerland) Market Value
| LONN Stock | CHF 526.40 19.60 3.87% |
| Symbol | Lonza |
Lonza Group 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Lonza Group's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Lonza Group.
| 05/05/2022 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Lonza Group on May 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Lonza Group AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Lonza Group over 720 days. Lonza Group is related to or competes with Sika AG, Givaudan, Geberit AG, Swiss Life, and Novartis. Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, supplies various products and services for pharmaceutical, biotech, and ... More
Lonza Group Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Lonza Group's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Lonza Group AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1825 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.23 |
Lonza Group Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Lonza Group's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Lonza Group's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Lonza Group historical prices to predict the future Lonza Group's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1426 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4887 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2093 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.3345 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.31 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lonza Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lonza Group AG Backtested Returns
Lonza Group appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Lonza Group AG has Sharpe Ratio of 0.24, which conveys that the firm had a 0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Lonza Group's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.6% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Lonza Group's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1426, mean deviation of 1.53, and Downside Deviation of 1.32 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Lonza Group holds a performance score of 19. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.4, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Lonza Group's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Lonza Group is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Lonza Group's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Lonza Group's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Lonza Group AG has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Lonza Group time series from 5th of May 2022 to 30th of April 2023 and 30th of April 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Lonza Group AG price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Lonza Group price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6793.65 |
Lonza Group AG lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Lonza Group stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Lonza Group's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Lonza Group returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Lonza Group has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Lonza Group regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Lonza Group stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Lonza Group stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Lonza Group stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Lonza Group Lagged Returns
When evaluating Lonza Group's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Lonza Group stock have on its future price. Lonza Group autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Lonza Group autocorrelation shows the relationship between Lonza Group stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Lonza Group AG.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lonza Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lonza Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lonza Group options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Lonza Stock analysis
When running Lonza Group's price analysis, check to measure Lonza Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lonza Group is operating at the current time. Most of Lonza Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lonza Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lonza Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lonza Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Lonza Group technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.