Matthews China Fund Market Value
| MCHFX Fund | USD 11.09 0.07 0.64% |
| Symbol | Matthews |
Matthews China 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Matthews China's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Matthews China.
| 09/26/2022 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Matthews China on September 26, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Matthews China Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Matthews China over 570 days. Matthews China is related to or competes with Matthews India, Matthews Pacific, Matthews Asian, Guinness Atkinson, and Oberweis China. Under normal circumstances, the fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing at least 80 percent of its n... More
Matthews China Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Matthews China's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Matthews China Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.74 |
Matthews China Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Matthews China's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Matthews China's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Matthews China historical prices to predict the future Matthews China's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0119 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0056 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matthews China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matthews China Backtested Returns
We consider Matthews China not too volatile. Matthews China has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0636, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0636% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Matthews China, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Matthews China's Mean Deviation of 1.18, risk adjusted performance of 0.0119, and Downside Deviation of 1.52 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0966%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.85, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Matthews China's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Matthews China is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.29 |
Weak reverse predictability
Matthews China Fund has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Matthews China time series from 26th of September 2022 to 8th of July 2023 and 8th of July 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Matthews China price movement. The serial correlation of -0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current Matthews China price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.74 |
Matthews China lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Matthews China mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Matthews China's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Matthews China returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Matthews China has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Matthews China regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Matthews China mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Matthews China mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Matthews China mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Matthews China Lagged Returns
When evaluating Matthews China's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Matthews China mutual fund have on its future price. Matthews China autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Matthews China autocorrelation shows the relationship between Matthews China mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Matthews China Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Matthews China in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Matthews China's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Matthews China options trading.
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Matthews China technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.