Madison Servative Allocation Fund Market Value
| MCOCX Fund | USD 9.59 0.04 0.42% |
| Symbol | Madison |
Madison Conservative 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Madison Conservative's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Madison Conservative.
| 05/05/2022 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Madison Conservative on May 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Madison Servative Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Madison Conservative over 720 days. Madison Conservative is related to or competes with Madison Mid, Madison Moderate, Madison Moderate, Madison Investors, Madison Investors, Broadview Opportunity, and Madison Aggressive. The fund invests primarily in shares of other registered investment companies More
Madison Conservative Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Madison Conservative's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Madison Servative Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3895 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.5123 |
Madison Conservative Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Madison Conservative's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Madison Conservative's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Madison Conservative historical prices to predict the future Madison Conservative's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0013 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.22) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Madison Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Madison Conservative Backtested Returns
We consider Madison Conservative very steady. Madison Conservative has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0017, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0017% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Madison Conservative, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Madison Conservative's Downside Deviation of 0.3895, risk adjusted performance of 0.0013, and Mean Deviation of 0.2499 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 6.0E-4%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.44, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Madison Conservative's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Madison Conservative is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.40 |
Average predictability
Madison Servative Allocation has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Madison Conservative time series from 5th of May 2022 to 30th of April 2023 and 30th of April 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Madison Conservative price movement. The serial correlation of 0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current Madison Conservative price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Madison Conservative lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Madison Conservative mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Madison Conservative's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Madison Conservative returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Madison Conservative has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Madison Conservative regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Madison Conservative mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Madison Conservative mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Madison Conservative mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Madison Conservative Lagged Returns
When evaluating Madison Conservative's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Madison Conservative mutual fund have on its future price. Madison Conservative autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Madison Conservative autocorrelation shows the relationship between Madison Conservative mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Madison Servative Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Madison Conservative in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Madison Conservative's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Madison Conservative options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Madison Conservative Correlation, Madison Conservative Volatility and Madison Conservative Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Madison Conservative. Note that the Madison Conservative information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Madison Conservative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Madison Conservative technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.