Mercantil (Brazil) Market Value
| MERC4 Preferred Stock | BRL 7.71 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Mercantil |
Mercantil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Mercantil's preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Mercantil.
| 05/05/2022 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Mercantil on May 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Mercantil do Brasil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Mercantil over 720 days. Mercantil is related to or competes with Banco Do, Petrleo Brasileiro, and Vale SA. Mercantil do Brasil Financeira S.A. provides retail banking products and services to individuals and legal entities in B... More
Mercantil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Mercantil's preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Mercantil do Brasil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 7.78 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 55.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.8 |
Mercantil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Mercantil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Mercantil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Mercantil historical prices to predict the future Mercantil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0127 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0479 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.81) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.12) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantil do Brasil Backtested Returns
We consider Mercantil relatively risky. Mercantil do Brasil has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0179, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0179% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Mercantil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Mercantil's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0127, mean deviation of 2.2, and Downside Deviation of 7.78 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. Mercantil has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.25, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Mercantil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Mercantil is likely to outperform the market. Mercantil do Brasil right now secures a risk of 6.74%. Please verify Mercantil do Brasil treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Mercantil do Brasil will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.03 |
Virtually no predictability
Mercantil do Brasil has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Mercantil time series from 5th of May 2022 to 30th of April 2023 and 30th of April 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Mercantil do Brasil price movement. The serial correlation of 0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Mercantil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.11 |
Mercantil do Brasil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Mercantil preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Mercantil's preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Mercantil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Mercantil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Mercantil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Mercantil preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Mercantil preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Mercantil preferred stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Mercantil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Mercantil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Mercantil preferred stock have on its future price. Mercantil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Mercantil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Mercantil preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Mercantil do Brasil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mercantil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mercantil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mercantil options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Mercantil Correlation, Mercantil Volatility and Mercantil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Mercantil. Note that the Mercantil do Brasil information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mercantil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Mercantil Preferred Stock analysis
When running Mercantil's price analysis, check to measure Mercantil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercantil is operating at the current time. Most of Mercantil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercantil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercantil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercantil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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