Meridian Trarian Fund Market Value
| MVALX Fund | USD 35.91 0.14 0.39% |
| Symbol | Meridian |
Meridian Contrarian 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Meridian Contrarian's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Meridian Contrarian.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Meridian Contrarian on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Meridian Trarian Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Meridian Contrarian over 30 days. Meridian Contrarian is related to or competes with Vanguard Mid-cap, Vanguard Extended, Morningstar Unconstrained, and SPACE. The Advisor emphasizes stocks which the Investment Adviser believes are undervalued in relation to the business long-ter... More
Meridian Contrarian Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Meridian Contrarian's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Meridian Trarian Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.27 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.31 |
Meridian Contrarian Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Meridian Contrarian's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Meridian Contrarian's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Meridian Contrarian historical prices to predict the future Meridian Contrarian's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0153 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0065 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meridian Contrarian's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Meridian Contrarian Backtested Returns
Meridian Contrarian has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0143, which conveys that the entity had a -0.0143% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Meridian Contrarian exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Meridian Contrarian's Mean Deviation of 0.7545, downside deviation of 1.31, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0153 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.36, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Meridian Contrarian will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Meridian Trarian Fund has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Meridian Contrarian time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Meridian Contrarian price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Meridian Contrarian price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.49 |
Meridian Contrarian lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Meridian Contrarian mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Meridian Contrarian's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Meridian Contrarian returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Meridian Contrarian has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Meridian Contrarian regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Meridian Contrarian mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Meridian Contrarian mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Meridian Contrarian mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Meridian Contrarian Lagged Returns
When evaluating Meridian Contrarian's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Meridian Contrarian mutual fund have on its future price. Meridian Contrarian autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Meridian Contrarian autocorrelation shows the relationship between Meridian Contrarian mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Meridian Trarian Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Meridian Contrarian technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.