Aquila Narragansett Tax Free Fund Market Value
| NITYX Fund | USD 10.02 0.01 0.1% |
| Symbol | Aquila |
Aquila Narragansett 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aquila Narragansett.
| 10/27/2023 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aquila Narragansett on October 27, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aquila Narragansett Tax Free or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aquila Narragansett over 180 days. Aquila Narragansett is related to or competes with Virginia Bond, Hawaiian Tax-free, Hawaiian Tax-free, Aquila Tax-free, Aquila Tax-free, Usaa Virginia, and Virginia Bond. Under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of the funds net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that p... More
Aquila Narragansett Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aquila Narragansett Tax Free upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.72) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.7933 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1984 |
Aquila Narragansett Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aquila Narragansett's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aquila Narragansett's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aquila Narragansett historical prices to predict the future Aquila Narragansett's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.58 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Narragansett's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aquila Narragansett Tax Backtested Returns
Aquila Narragansett Tax secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0107, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0107% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aquila Narragansett Tax Free exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aquila Narragansett's Standard Deviation of 0.1401, risk adjusted performance of (0.06), and Mean Deviation of 0.0985 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0101, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aquila Narragansett are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aquila Narragansett is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Aquila Narragansett Tax Free has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aquila Narragansett time series from 27th of October 2023 to 25th of January 2024 and 25th of January 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aquila Narragansett Tax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current Aquila Narragansett price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Aquila Narragansett Tax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aquila Narragansett mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aquila Narragansett returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aquila Narragansett has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aquila Narragansett regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aquila Narragansett mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aquila Narragansett mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aquila Narragansett mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aquila Narragansett Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aquila Narragansett's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aquila Narragansett mutual fund have on its future price. Aquila Narragansett autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aquila Narragansett autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aquila Narragansett mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aquila Narragansett Tax Free.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aquila Narragansett in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aquila Narragansett's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aquila Narragansett options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Aquila Narragansett Correlation, Aquila Narragansett Volatility and Aquila Narragansett Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Aquila Narragansett. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Aquila Narragansett technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.