Oberweis Micro Cap Fund Market Value
| OBMCX Fund | USD 36.08 0.29 0.80% |
| Symbol | Oberweis |
Oberweis Micro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oberweis Micro's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oberweis Micro.
| 09/26/2022 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oberweis Micro on September 26, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oberweis Micro Cap Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oberweis Micro over 570 days. Oberweis Micro is related to or competes with HUMANA. The fund invests, under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of its net assets in the securities of very small comp... More
Oberweis Micro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oberweis Micro's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oberweis Micro Cap Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.9 |
Oberweis Micro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oberweis Micro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oberweis Micro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oberweis Micro historical prices to predict the future Oberweis Micro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0226 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0165 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oberweis Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oberweis Micro Cap Backtested Returns
We consider Oberweis Micro very steady. Oberweis Micro Cap maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0138, which implies the entity had a 0.0138% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Oberweis Micro Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Oberweis Micro's Coefficient Of Variation of 3677.42, semi deviation of 1.35, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0226 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0195%. The fund holds a Beta of 1.67, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Oberweis Micro will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.15 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Oberweis Micro Cap Fund has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oberweis Micro time series from 26th of September 2022 to 8th of July 2023 and 8th of July 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oberweis Micro Cap price movement. The serial correlation of -0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current Oberweis Micro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.12 |
Oberweis Micro Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oberweis Micro mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oberweis Micro's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oberweis Micro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oberweis Micro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Oberweis Micro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oberweis Micro mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oberweis Micro mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oberweis Micro mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Oberweis Micro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oberweis Micro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oberweis Micro mutual fund have on its future price. Oberweis Micro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oberweis Micro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oberweis Micro mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oberweis Micro Cap Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Oberweis Micro Correlation, Oberweis Micro Volatility and Oberweis Micro Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Oberweis Micro. Note that the Oberweis Micro Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Oberweis Micro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Oberweis Micro technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.