ProShares UltraPro Backtesting

ProShares UltraPro 3x Shrt Crude Oil ETF -- USA Etf  

USD 30.38  2.91  8.74%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of ProShares UltraPro 3x Shrt Crude Oil ETF and determine expected loss or profit from investing in ProShares UltraPro over given investment horizon. Additionally take a look at ProShares UltraPro Hype Analysis, ProShares UltraPro Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, ProShares UltraPro Volatility as well as analyze ProShares UltraPro Alpha and Beta and ProShares UltraPro Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

ProShares UltraPro 'What if' Analysis

February 19, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
March 21, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in ProShares UltraPro on February 19, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ProShares UltraPro 3x Shrt Crude Oil ETF or generate 0.0% return on investment in ProShares UltraPro over 30 days. ProShares UltraPro is related to or competes with United States, iPath SP, PowerShares DB, United States, ProShares UltraShort, and VelocityShares 3x. The investment seeks to return a multiple of the performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex for a single day

ProShares UltraPro Upside/Downside Indicators


ProShares UltraPro Market Premium Indicators

ProShares UltraPro 3x lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

ProShares UltraPro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

ProShares UltraPro 3x Backtested Returns

ProShares UltraPro is abnormally risky given 1 month investment horizon. ProShares UltraPro 3x maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e. Efficiency) of 0.2023 which implies ProShares UltraPro 3x had 0.2023% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards forecasting volatility of a etf is to use ProShares UltraPro 3x market data together with company specific technical indicators. We found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 11.9171% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use ProShares UltraPro Coefficient Of Variation of 495.88, Semi Deviation of 2.95 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2193 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The etf holds Beta of 1.9528 which implies as market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, ProShares UltraPro will likely underperform.. Although it is essential to pay attention to ProShares UltraPro 3x current trending patterns, it is also good to be reasonable about what you can actually do with equity existing price patterns. Macroaxis philosophy towards forecasting future performance of any etf is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if ProShares UltraPro 3x expected return of 11.9171 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.12) 

Insignificant reverse predictability

ProShares UltraPro 3x Shrt Crude Oil ETF has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ProShares UltraPro time series from February 19, 2018 to March 6, 2018 and March 6, 2018 to March 21, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ProShares UltraPro 3x price movement. The serial correlation of -0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current ProShares UltraPro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that ProShares UltraPro 3x Shrt Crude Oil ETF has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of ProShares UltraPro for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.12
Spearman Rank Test -0.42
Price Variance 47.77
Lagged Price Variance 0.16

ProShares UltraPro Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

ProShares UltraPro Performance vs DOW

The median price of ProShares UltraPro for the period between Mon, Feb 19, 2018 and Wed, Mar 21, 2018 is 9.41 with a coefficient of variation of 59.36. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 6.68, arithmetic mean of 11.26, and mean deviation of 3.74. The Etf did not receive any noticable media coverage during the period.
 Price Growth (%)