Otter Creek Longshort Fund Market Value
| OTCRX Fund | USD 13.46 0.02 0.15% |
| Symbol | Otter |
Otter Creek 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Otter Creek's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Otter Creek.
| 02/17/2024 |
| 04/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Otter Creek on February 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Otter Creek Longshort or generate 0.0% return on investment in Otter Creek over 60 days. Otter Creek is related to or competes with Boston Partners, Asg Managed, Pimco Trends, and Aqr Long-short. The manager employs a longshort investment strategy to achieve capital appreciation and manage risk More
Otter Creek Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Otter Creek's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Otter Creek Longshort upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5092 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0901 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.71) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.36 |
Otter Creek Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Otter Creek's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Otter Creek's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Otter Creek historical prices to predict the future Otter Creek's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1155 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0763 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0567 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.11 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.18 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Otter Creek's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Otter Creek Longshort Backtested Returns
We consider Otter Creek very steady. Otter Creek Longshort maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.2, which implies the entity had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Otter Creek Longshort, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Otter Creek's Coefficient Of Variation of 544.89, semi deviation of 0.2754, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1155 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.58, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Otter Creek's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Otter Creek is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Otter Creek Longshort has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Otter Creek time series from 17th of February 2024 to 18th of March 2024 and 18th of March 2024 to 17th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Otter Creek Longshort price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Otter Creek price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Otter Creek Longshort lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Otter Creek mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Otter Creek's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Otter Creek returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Otter Creek has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Otter Creek regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Otter Creek mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Otter Creek mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Otter Creek mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Otter Creek Lagged Returns
When evaluating Otter Creek's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Otter Creek mutual fund have on its future price. Otter Creek autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Otter Creek autocorrelation shows the relationship between Otter Creek mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Otter Creek Longshort.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Otter Creek technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.