Selected American Shares Fund Market Value
| SLADX Fund | USD 41.96 0.23 0.55% |
| Symbol | Selected |
Selected American 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Selected American's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Selected American.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Selected American on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Selected American Shares or generate 0.0% return on investment in Selected American over 30 days. Selected American is related to or competes with Selected International, Selected International, Morningstar Equity, Morningstar Unconstrained, Morningstar Alternatives, Gqg Partners, and Vanguard Energy. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowing for investment purposes, in securities issued... More
Selected American Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Selected American's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Selected American Shares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8414 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1114 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.44 |
Selected American Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Selected American's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Selected American's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Selected American historical prices to predict the future Selected American's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1216 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0901 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0727 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1123 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1425 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Selected American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Selected American Shares Backtested Returns
We consider Selected American very steady. Selected American Shares owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.17, which indicates the fund had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Selected American Shares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Selected American's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1216, semi deviation of 0.586, and Coefficient Of Variation of 519.88 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. The entity has a beta of 1.07, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Selected American returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Selected American is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
Selected American Shares has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Selected American time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Selected American Shares price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Selected American price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.41 |
Selected American Shares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Selected American mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Selected American's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Selected American returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Selected American has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Selected American regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Selected American mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Selected American mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Selected American mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Selected American Lagged Returns
When evaluating Selected American's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Selected American mutual fund have on its future price. Selected American autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Selected American autocorrelation shows the relationship between Selected American mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Selected American Shares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Selected American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Selected American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Selected American options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Selected American Correlation, Selected American Volatility and Selected American Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Selected American. Note that the Selected American Shares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Selected American's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Selected American technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.