Thornburg E Growth Fund Market Value
| THCGX Fund | USD 27.91 0.58 2.12% |
| Symbol | Thornburg |
Thornburg 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thornburg's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thornburg.
| 01/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thornburg on January 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thornburg E Growth or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thornburg over 90 days. Thornburg is related to or competes with Thornburg Value, Thornburg Value, Thornburg International, Thornburg International, Thornburg International, Thornburg International, and Thornburg Developing. Under normal conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in small- and mid-capitalization compani... More
Thornburg Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thornburg's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thornburg E Growth upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0074 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.84) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.6 |
Thornburg Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thornburg's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thornburg's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thornburg historical prices to predict the future Thornburg's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0597 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0069 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0647 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thornburg E Growth Backtested Returns
We consider Thornburg very steady. Thornburg E Growth owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0939, which indicates the fund had a 0.0939% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Thornburg E Growth, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Thornburg's Semi Deviation of 1.02, coefficient of variation of 1111.47, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0597 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. The entity has a beta of 1.35, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Thornburg will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.47 |
Modest reverse predictability
Thornburg E Growth has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thornburg time series from 25th of January 2024 to 10th of March 2024 and 10th of March 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thornburg E Growth price movement. The serial correlation of -0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current Thornburg price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.47 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.43 |
Thornburg E Growth lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thornburg mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thornburg's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thornburg returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thornburg has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thornburg regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thornburg mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thornburg mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thornburg mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thornburg's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thornburg mutual fund have on its future price. Thornburg autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thornburg autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thornburg mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thornburg E Growth.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Thornburg Correlation, Thornburg Volatility and Thornburg Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Thornburg. Note that the Thornburg E Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thornburg's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Thornburg technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.