Toews Tactical Monument Fund Market Value
| THLGX Fund | USD 13.53 0.05 0.37% |
| Symbol | Toews |
Toews Tactical 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Toews Tactical's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Toews Tactical.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Toews Tactical on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Toews Tactical Monument or generate 0.0% return on investment in Toews Tactical over 30 days. Toews Tactical is related to or competes with Mondrian Global, Crossmark Steward, Huber Capital, T Rowe, Us Strategic, Gmo Global, and Artisan Select. The fund invests primarily in equity index futures contracts, as well as U.S More
Toews Tactical Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Toews Tactical's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Toews Tactical Monument upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7748 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.53 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.27) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.12 |
Toews Tactical Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Toews Tactical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Toews Tactical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Toews Tactical historical prices to predict the future Toews Tactical's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0088 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toews Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toews Tactical Monument Backtested Returns
Toews Tactical Monument owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0096, which indicates the fund had a -0.0096% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Toews Tactical Monument exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Toews Tactical's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0088, coefficient of variation of 9015.79, and Semi Deviation of 0.7451 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.96, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Toews Tactical returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Toews Tactical is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
Toews Tactical Monument has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Toews Tactical time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Toews Tactical Monument price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Toews Tactical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.85 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Toews Tactical Monument lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Toews Tactical mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Toews Tactical's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Toews Tactical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Toews Tactical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Toews Tactical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Toews Tactical mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Toews Tactical mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Toews Tactical mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Toews Tactical Lagged Returns
When evaluating Toews Tactical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Toews Tactical mutual fund have on its future price. Toews Tactical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Toews Tactical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Toews Tactical mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Toews Tactical Monument.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Toews Tactical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Toews Tactical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Toews Tactical options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Toews Tactical Correlation, Toews Tactical Volatility and Toews Tactical Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Toews Tactical. Note that the Toews Tactical Monument information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toews Tactical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Toews Tactical technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.