Thornburg Global Opportunities Fund Market Value
| THOGX Fund | USD 36.41 0.24 0.66% |
| Symbol | Thornburg |
Thornburg Global 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thornburg Global's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thornburg Global.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thornburg Global on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thornburg Global Opportunities or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thornburg Global over 30 days. Thornburg Global is related to or competes with Commonwealth Real, Gamco Global, HUMANA, Thrivent High, Via Renewables, T Rowe, and Victory Sophus. The fund pursues its investment goal by investing primarily in a broad range of equity securities, including common stoc... More
Thornburg Global Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thornburg Global's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thornburg Global Opportunities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7745 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0773 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.0 |
Thornburg Global Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thornburg Global's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thornburg Global's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thornburg Global historical prices to predict the future Thornburg Global's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1123 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1208 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0469 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0662 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.59) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thornburg Global Opp Backtested Returns
We consider Thornburg Global very steady. Thornburg Global Opp owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.24, which indicates the fund had a 0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Thornburg Global Opportunities, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Thornburg Global's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1123, coefficient of variation of 553.79, and Semi Deviation of 0.5858 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. The entity has a beta of -0.19, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Thornburg Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Thornburg Global is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.8 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Thornburg Global Opportunities has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thornburg Global time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thornburg Global Opp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Thornburg Global price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.24 |
Thornburg Global Opp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thornburg Global mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thornburg Global's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thornburg Global returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thornburg Global has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Global regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thornburg Global mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thornburg Global mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thornburg Global mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Global Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thornburg Global's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thornburg Global mutual fund have on its future price. Thornburg Global autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thornburg Global autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thornburg Global mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thornburg Global Opportunities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Thornburg Global Correlation, Thornburg Global Volatility and Thornburg Global Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Thornburg Global. Note that the Thornburg Global Opp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thornburg Global's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Thornburg Global technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.